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China's oil consumption is growing by huge numbers each year. It shot up from 3-4mb/d to 7-8mb/d now is less than 10 years, and it's not slowing down. The imports number is doing worse, given that China (something that a lot of people forget, is the fourth producer of oil (after Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US) with around 4mb/d: it has shot from nothing to 4mb/d in the same period, and all the future consumption growth will translate into import growth.

So far, most of China's relelntless energy growth has been provided by coal, but given that it is beginning to lose its self-sufficiency in that fuel as well, future prospects are dire (how much coal can a 1.5 billion ton per year producer can import from a 200 million ton producers, ie Australia?).

Yes, they have cash reserves, but these are mostly in dollars - their value in oil is uncertain, to say the least.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 27th, 2008 at 08:15:11 AM EST
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