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I think you have a good first order picture there for how countries will weather the front shockwave.

Some things I see missing for the longer term:

  • Expectation of growth and effect on social stability.
  • Comparative structures of economies and established practices. CAPEX vs. OPEX intensive.
  • Heterogeneity within countries: Many countries are multiple countries in one operating in largely separate economies.
  • Legitimacy/ability of governments to impose structural adaptations.
by Francois in Paris on Mon May 26th, 2008 at 08:00:38 PM EST

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