Since Eritrea turned up as one of the countries most vulnerable, and I happen to know a bit about it, I figured it is a interesting example. I think it can be said with some certainty what will happen with more expensive oil in Eritrea. Eritreas government is rather predictable.

Oil in Eritrea is mainly used for two things: oil power plants and transport. Electrical power will be rationed within the mayor cities, the smaller cities will not get much at all. This will be used to further the governments control. Transport will get more expensive and probably rationed. Military and governmental functions will take priority. This will also be used to further the governments control. Military is by the way mostly infantry. Eritreas few airplanes and tanks can not use all that much oil.

But, most of power in Eritrea is muscle power, human or animal. Most consumtion is based on localy produced agricultural products. If the local bar looses  power to run the tv and fridge, you can no longer have a cold bira (locally produced, tastes differently everywhere) and watch the game. Which sucks, but thats life.

For the majority of the population things will not change much.

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