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I don't imagine former Soviet countries like Belorus suffering particularly badly from Oil crunch. Belorus is next door from my birth places; they like driving, but not particularly madly. There was some Soviet dirty demanding industry there, but that scale is long forgotten. Yes, Belarus is sucking cheap Soviet-Russian oil for "ages", but if that must stop they will adopt. The people will not be "surprised" by diminishing supplies - they've seen that since medieval wars and privileges, 20th century world wars and revolutions, and most recently, since the break up of Soviet system. In effect, people are more self-reliant there than in any Wild West (though the trick of mutual support is not forgotten). They will adjust their needs like no one else.

I can say that I experienced a kind of energy blackout: after Lithuania declared independence in March 1990, the Soviet government cut energy supplies the next month, and that blockade continued till July 1991. (PDF). Traffic became more quiet, but travel by bus was still possible (as I started my studies in Vilnius). My family was determined to finish building a new house, now matter the costs...

by das monde on Mon May 26th, 2008 at 08:54:55 PM EST

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