Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty | 340 comments (340 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

Maybe we could start by replacing the idea of the EU as a collection of nations with the idea of a collection of citizens... That point of view could help...

Lovely idea. Now, how do we get there?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:42:01 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

How do you get the nations to agree to dissolve themselves?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:45:26 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

I suppose you are being sarcastic, but there are many ways, a simple example:

Give political EU power to a body directly elected by citizens, and only (mostly) to that.

Want some nation representation? Have a senate, American way. Equal nation representation, directly elected.

I don't think this is a "Summer night's dream".

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:53:29 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

Although I would bet that the narrative now will be "two speeds" EU. Which, depending on the framing, could be good or bad.

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:55:46 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

"Two speeds" is the only way forward now, so it's an easy bet. Enhanced cooperation has been in the books for over a decade but they've been afraid to use it (Schengen and the Euro were developed in the 80's by the same people who brought you the EU itself at Maastricht).

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:05:45 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

No, they'll do another referendum here in the autumn.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:07:19 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 4)

I don't think they can do a Nice II trick a second time around. Nice I was a 35% poll. Lisbon is a 55% poll. You're not going to turn that around so easily. If anything the No vote will get bigger, because people will get REALLY pissed if they have to go through all this again

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:11:21 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

There will need to be some substantial coda or change - which probably means re-ratification elsewhere - but they could do it. Don't forget that most of the No campaign have suggested that there would be a better deal available.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:14:08 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

I predict November, personally.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:15:31 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

But NONE of them have been able to articulate what a better deal would mean for them, and we know they are all coming from different places even if they did have an alternative concrete proposal on offer. So what could the EU offer? A guarantee not to microchip babies? That will sway a lot of votes.

I think it will be a carrot and stick approach myself. A threat to exclude Ireland from a two speed Europe should start the ball rolling

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:23:11 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

Oh, they were mostly lying, but that's not really important - they brought it up so a new referendum can be justified in those terms.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:26:57 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

So what could the EU offer? A guarantee not to microchip babies?

Actually, could you come up with a list of the specific things that the No camp was worried about, such as the chipping of babies? We could then put together a proposal to "amend" the Treaty.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:28:06 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

My experience of negotiation leads me to think that you could address every single grievance with specific measures - and then they would come up with a new set of problems. The problem is that although they claimed to want to negotiate a better deal for Ireland, they really wanted no deal at all.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:35:26 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

It's still worth trying, though.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:40:45 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

Yes, but you're not negotiating with the advocacy groups, you're trying to convince the voters.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:50:09 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

Exactly. And most of the demands are actually harmless to "address".

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:53:01 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

If you want to convince voters you will have to come up a much simpler document that people feel they can understand. You will also have to explain to them:

what's in it for them
What's in it for Ireland
What's in it for Europe
What's in it for the World

finally we will have to explain to them that the Murdoch/Ganly/McEvaddy media machines have a very different agenda to what is in their own best interest.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:57:57 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

No, you just have to come up with amendments that address their stated concerns.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 03:45:03 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

Keeping a commissioner for each country is one of their few concerns which actually relates to the Treaty and which might not create a huge problem for other states if the Treaty was changed to allow this. Can you think of others?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:52:31 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 3)

Well, apparently there is some language in the treaty (as pointed out by irishhead) committing the member states to increasing their military capacity. Offer Ireland an opt-out.

The other issues are not in the treaty but could be:

To address the concern about the loss of jobs and the foreign workers: stronger language about "full employment" in the introductory part of the treaty
To address the concern about militarism: an opt-out from the defence component of the Common Foreign and Security Policy. If this means that the Irish Minister of Defence has to sit out all Council meetings, so be it.
Fuel prices: language about energy independence.
Democracy and Accountability: make the votes in the Council (if not the deliberation) public, by treaty. Also, it would be good if the EP published that damn report on expense account irregularities of MEPs.
Politicians haven't read the treaty: have the government publish an annotated version.
Treaty drafted abstrusively: annotated version.
Corporate taxation: [while I find that working class people are shooting themselves in the foot by opposing this] offer an opt-out if a clause from any EU fiscal policy: if this means Ireland's finance minister sits out ECOFIN meetings, so be it.
EU regulation of farming: offer an opt-out from the CAP.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 14th, 2008 at 03:31:34 AM EST
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These are all doable, except (none / 1)

the last one. How do you opt out of the one fully integrated policy (and that was already integrated when Ireland joined)? Out of the rules? Out of the payment mechanisms?

And it's a huge can of worms.

The rest sounds like sensible ideas.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 05:42:53 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

The last one is bollocks: most Irish farmers would starve to death without CAP.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 06:07:14 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

The first one is bollocks, too: Ireland has been a nation of emigrants until 15 years ago. That's a perfect example of "I got mine, fuck you".

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:50:00 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 3)

Do. not. get. me. started. Really.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:53:58 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

The last few months have seen a huge and very sudden rise in unemployment due mainly to the collapse in the building industry. This means that a lot of young working class guys with few qualifications for work outside building have suddenly gone from earning very good money to suddenly having very little to live on. Those that have families and mortgages are screwed. Those that got used to a high living, heavy drinking lifestyle are suffering withdrawals. There is little culture of saving and investment for a rainy day because these guys didn't know life before the Celtic tiger.

So far the downturn has hardly effected middle class families at all - unless they are running their own business - so life goes on as normal for the majority and the political establishment just continues playing its usual games as if nothing is happening. Some of the no vote, at least, was a protest vote against this disconnect.

The problem is that this problem will get a lot worse in the next few months, and unless the Cowen Government does something pretty dramatic about it, the level of anger and protest can only get worse. I am hoping it doesn't develop into full blown racist xenophobia directed at the huge recent immigrant population living here and am relieved that so far, it hasn't. However the Celtic Tiger cubs are growing up and now want to command their own prides, and some pretty nasty infighting could occur when there aren't enough jobs to go around.

Giving them history lessons on how the Irish, too, are a nation of emigrants isn't really going to help much - especially when those lessons are being given by the middle classes still sitting on record levels of income.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 08:36:54 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

Doesn't Ireland need any new railroads or other public infrastructure that the government could hire some of that unused construction manpower to build.

After all, if they are unemployed, then it means that nobody is benefiting from their skills.

(Cue Mig pulling out a Keynes quote :-P)

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 06:49:38 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

Of course, if the Irish Government doesn't do this it's the fault of the Lisbon Treaty.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:04:56 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

In fairness the Irish Government has embarked on a huge multi-billion infrastructural development programme which will absorb a lot of the slack from the collapse of the private housing market.

There have been some noises from Cowen to the effect that this may have to be scaled back because of a sharp downturn in tax revenues, but if ever there was a time and reason to hold your nerve and increase borrowing to fund a large infrastructural programme well this is it.

I can see the Unions pressing hard for this as part of the current social partnership talks - but they may have to pay in terms of pay moderation in order to get it.

The other plus side of doing it now is that there has been huge price inflation in infrastructural projects because of the tight labour market (in the past) and - well - infrastructural bottlenecks. So it should be possible to get a lot more done for the same money now that might have been possible a couple of years ago.

Huge money has been spent on infrastructure, health etc. - tripling expenditures of c. 10 years ago - the problem has been getting value for money for the invstment spent. (Our metros cost many multiples per KM more than e.g. Madrid spent for comparable investment). A lot of this is down to to inflation at a time of huge growth, but even more to very poor project management and decision making capabilities within the public service.

For instance the M50 ring road motorway around Dublin handed even been completed when they had to start upgrading it from 4 lanes to 6 for multiples of the original cost. Now they are going to spend hundreds of millions on an electronic tolling system when a few cent on the price of petrol would bring in the same extra revenue for zero incremental collection cost.

Every private sector company I know rubs its hands at the prospect of a public contract. The initial tender price may have to be low - but the spec is always changed and then they can charge what they like. 100's of lawyers have become multi-millionaires from the Tribunals alone - work that in England would have been done by a judge and a couple of barristers in a matter of weeks.

The waste is spectacular and yet it is almost impossible to even raise the issue of poor management. (The Irish Times has never published a letter of mine criticizing any aspect of the management of public projects/services). This is why I am sometimes at odds with Jerome's paeans of praise to the French public service - if only some real accountability and management disciplines applied in Ireland.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:41:37 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

I agree.

There is only one way I can see the government being able to hold a "legitimate" second referendum. They could resign on the basis that the electorate have rejected there advocacy of Lisbon and hence that they can no longer presume to hold the electorate's confidence. They could then campaign during the general election on the basis of re-submitting the treaty. Presumably FF and FG would campaign on such a platform and also possibly Labour. It would be a gutsy move, with about zero percent probability of ever happening.

by det on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 05:13:34 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

You could be on to something here. A general election on this issue would wrong foot both Fine Gael and Labour (as they also supported the Treaty) at the cost of providing a huge boost to Sinn Fein who would be the only real opposition party. However it would allow Cowen to present himself as a man of principle and convistion and stamp his leadership on the party and give him a mandate in his won right.

He would have a lot of work to do in explaining to the electorate that this is his and our only best option. I was speaking to a senior civil servant this evening and he is convinced that the "turkey's have just voted for Christmas" and destroyed Ireland's standing in the corridors of power in the EU. He has been at the sharp end of a lot of EU negotiations, and so he should know.

However Cowen is a very cautious man and I can see him risking his premiership in such a dramatic move. This one ios going to take some time to sort out. Expect the media to finally do some digging into Ganly and co.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:07:16 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

However Cowen is a very cautious man and I can see him risking his premiership in such a dramatic move.

Can? Can't?

This one ios going to take some time to sort out. Expect the media to finally do some digging into Ganly and co.

Last night on the BBC, the "no" campaign was presented as consisting of LIBERTAS and LIBERTAS only. WIll he turn it into a political party?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 14th, 2008 at 03:09:29 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

sorry, can't.

I think he would be very stupid to try and would be hammered. The progressive Democrats are the most comparable pro business pro US party and they have dropped down to 2% of the vote. He was given a free ride because he wasn't a politician. That would change overnight if he turned it into a political party. I hope he does - his true level of support would quickly become apparent.

The BBC must be trying to spin this as "Ireland comes around to Britain's Euroscepticism" because there is no way he remotely compares to Sinn Fein in terms of potential political support.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 14th, 2008 at 05:39:49 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

I don't mean how to theoretically construct it - though a US model is one of the worst ideas I can think of - I mean how to get there. What sequence of believable steps would you take? How do you get your wonderful idea ratified?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:55:51 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

I am just taking, from the US model, the Congress and Senate.

Never the dependency on private money for politics.

And the ideal, long term "congress" would be proportional - EU wide - single circle.

How to get there? First step: Have a treaty that reinforces the parliament (I know, Lisbon does that) and empties the non electable parts of the EU.

What I don't want to see is major policy decisions coming from unelected (or very indirectly elected) parts of the EU. Just that.

And things like tax competition, future train liberalization, come as far as I know (correct me if I am wrong) not from the European parliament but from either the commission or inter governmental agreements.

But, falling back to pragmatic reality, I would bet that the way now will be "two speeds". But lets see...

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:13:05 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

tiagoantao:

How to get there? First step: Have a treaty that reinforces the parliament (I know, Lisbon does that) and empties the non electable parts of the EU.

How do you get the Council to agree to strip itself of power?

What I don't want to see is major policy decisions coming from unelected (or very indirectly elected) parts of the EU. Just that.

Because National Laws are shining examples of rational and just policies and EU Directives are blockheaded. Right.

And things like tax competition, future train liberalization, come as far as I know (correct me if I am wrong) not from the European parliament but from either the commission or inter governmental agreements.

True, but how do you get the Council to give up their political power?

And, if you do that, how do you get the sovereigntist camp in each member state from voting no? They'de be very strong in a number of countries, actually in a majority I suspect (Ireland, UK, Scandinavia and most of the New Member States)

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:18:05 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 3)

What I don't want to see is major policy decisions coming from unelected (or very indirectly elected) parts of the EU. Just that.
Because National Laws are shining examples of rational and just policies and EU Directives are blockheaded. Right

My argument for democracy is not pragmatic but principled.

I am Portuguese, most of what can be called civilization in my country is normally the imposition of an EU directive (this is an exaggeration, but you get the point).

I am fully aware of the shortcomings of democracy. I normally am against the common/majority sense in my original country. But in the overall I cannot think of a better system (a topic for another discussion...).

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:39:02 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 3)

tiagoantao:

I am Portuguese, most of what can be called civilization in my country is normally the imposition of an EU directive (this is an exaggeration, but you get the point).

It may not be an exaggeration because the Enlightenment has been an elite project for the last 300 years. Progressive and potentially inclusive, but elite all the same.

The labour movement has been another powerful non-elite engine of progress.

Both seem to have fizzled out of late and a synthesis and revival would be a very good thing.

But the point is that a technocratic elite might be a good thing in a democratic arrangement.

In France, however, as I gather from Jerome's complaints, the technocratic elite has lost its public service ethos and been coopted into predatorial capitalism which is not a good thing. And as the EU Commission looks a lot like the French civil service, one should expect a similar shift there.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:49:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes (none / 1)

Exactly.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:53:17 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

I am just taking, from the US model, the Congress and Senate.

Never the dependency on private money for politics.

The dependenccy on private money for politics, and the general bad state, arguably has stuctural reasons, too.
As Migeru noted, there are other federal models around.
Personally, I don't see much sense in a diretly elected Senate, when there are governments already. Either way, I would like to see the power of the body representing the federated territorial units reduced relative to the body representing all citizens of the federation.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:36:11 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 3)

Actually, an unelected second-reading chamber helps protect the State from the influence of money. Case in point: if the House of Lords votes down 42-day detention it will be in part because Brown can't threaten the Lords with a snap election where they'd lose their seats, or engage in horse-trading on individual constituency demands.

So I am convinced that having two directly elected chambers is a waste. Spain's Senate definitely is useless as configured and I would much rather it be replaced with the Conference of Presidents.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:40:15 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

I missed one line here: ... but I am not convinced that a unelected second chamber is a bad idea

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:55:40 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 4)

tiagoantao:

I suppose you are being sarcastic, but there are many ways, a simple example:

He's pointing out that you need to get this coded into a treaty, agreed by the Council of the EU, and approved by all 27 member states. Good luck with steps 2 and 3, as we have seen.

Give political EU power to a body directly elected by citizens, and only (mostly) to that.

Define "political power". The EU already exist. Don't fetishize "directly elected": this is still a representative democracy.

Want some nation representation? Have a senate, American way. Equal nation representation, directly elected.

Don't fetishize the American Senate. We already have the Council, which is very much like the German Bundesrat, the Swiss Federal Council, or the Spanish (consultative) "Assembly of Presidents" (of Autonomous Communities).

I don't think this is a "Summer night's dream".

It is to think it'll be any easier to even get agreement to that at the EU Council.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:00:59 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

The EU already exist

I mean the EP already exists.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:21:45 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

Well, to not be negative, I would love to see an EU federalist reform via citizen's initiative rather than the work of a body drawn from national parliaments but hijacked by ol' Giscard. In fact, in that situation, the EU Council might feel pressed to play along.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:22:20 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

Too bad the Lisbon Treaty and its right of Initiative didn't pass.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:23:45 AM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

What I mean is that the (or a) Constitution/Reform/Lisbon Treaty itself would have a greater chance of being passed in referendums, would it be pushed by (would it be seen as owned by) a citizen's initiativew rather than the political class.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 05:17:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 0)

Does making the European Parliament draft it count?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 05:26:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

Do you mean

Citizen's Initiative for new Constitution -> EP actually drafts it -> text goes through Council and Commission -> final draft goes to referendums, with citizen's initiative taking credit -> people approve,

EP initiates and drafts it -> text goes through Council and Commission -> final draft goes to referendums, with EP distinguishing itself from the "political class" (Counci, governments) and the "bureaucrats" (Commission) by taking credit -> people approve?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:12:12 PM EST
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Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

More the second, thought I suspect you meant the first.

I don't think either is currently viable as things stand: the Irish just killed the right of petition though if someone gathered 1 million signatures I suppose it could still be made to happen.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:17:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

I meant the first, and I meant an 'inofficial' but "making-waves" citizen's initiative, which itself could achieve the right of real Citizen's Initiative as part of a reform treaty people actually accept.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 3)

Just to make sure you do not miss my humble ideas on how to use the EP election to transfer real power within the structure:
European Tribune - After Lisbon, using EP election to strenghten EP power

After Lisbon, using EP election to strenghten EP power

"If elected, I will not vote to elect an EP president unless the president in question agrees to hold an EP conference to draft the EPs proposal for a coherent constitution, to be approved by EU-wide common referenda before submitted to member state ratification"

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:14:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

Here's how we should top Stop Blair!: draft our own EU Constitution & campaign for it!...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

Yes.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:43:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (4.00 / 2)

He's pointing out that you need to get this coded into a treaty, agreed by the Council of the EU, and approved by all 27 member states. Good luck with steps 2 and 3, as we have seen. [my emphasis]

Is there any reason under international law why a number of states could not decide to mutually and consensually annex each other and establish a bigger state? And is there any reason under international law that such a superstate could not withdraw from the EU unilaterally, either after or during formation?

If this superstate encompasses all of the EU sans a few objecting minor countries (UK, Cyprus, maybe Denmark. You all know The Usual Suspects), they might even be able to transfer most of the bureaucracy reasonably intact, if that is considered desirable.

How would this differ from amending the existing treaties to make the EU a federal state (apart, of course, from being a bit smaller)?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 06:38:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on (none / 1)

I think it is quite feasible, within international law, for a number of current EU members states to agree (say) a joint constitution which binds them much closer together than the current EU does. Non members of this elite club would only have a grievance if any of the elite club welshed on their commitments to them under existing EU treaties.

However given that these are presumably mostly lesser commitments, and that the new elite arrangement is a superset of what the EU treaty obligations currently are - there might not actually be a problem except for hugely confusing arrangements which might be required to keep the entities separate - e.g. two commissions serving some of the same countries but not all.

However the members of the elite club could also give notice of their intention to withdraw from the existing EU and nobody could stop them. You would then have an elite club of x members - and a rump EU of 27-X members. Pretty soon they would be accepted as nonsensical by all, and, depending on the size of X, one camp would fold its tent and either go independent or join the other.

Thus if the EP drafted a radical and simplified new constitution, and say 22 members signed up for it and gave notice of their intention to withdraw from the EU (classic edition), the other 5 would realistically have to either join up or go it alone. Small countries like Ireland would have little choice but to join up. Only bigger countries like UK/Sweden etc. might decide otherwise. And everyone might decide a much more cohesive and democratic EU of say 25 members is better than a chaotic 27 member EU.

This may be the thinking behind the proposal that the Lisbon ratification process should continue. At some point the Lisbon compliant members might simply threaten to leave the old EU and continue on their own - at which point Ireland would cave in and the UK might not - but I wouldn't be surprised if even the UK would cave in at the last moment amid loud accusations of blackmail etc.

The bottom line is that the EU is the only game in town and those who threaten it are playing with fire.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 08:10:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty | 340 comments (340 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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