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How is it even possible for the Renminbi to increase against the US$ and decrease against the Euro as a result of differential trade imbalances or policy? Is this because the Chinese currency is not convertible? What is the residual trend after the (presumably independent) decline of the $ against the Euro is accounted for?

Jerôme, these are probably basic questions that you shouldn't waste your time answering in detail, but perhaps if you had any helpful links for the financially illiterate...?

PS. The housing graph: oh dear me!

by PIGL (stevec@boreal.gmail@com) on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 10:09:34 AM EST
What is the residual trend after the (presumably independent) decline of the $ against the Euro is accounted for?

Obviously, the other graph. If you peg the value of your virtual dollar to the real Euro, they will move the same.

However, what the smoothness of one curve and the rhapsodic nature of the other tells me is that China closely manages the appreciation of the renminbi relative to the US dollar, and largely but not totally ignores the Euro. I.e. they bend to US demands, but not to an extent that the price advantage against Europe doesn't increase.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 10:20:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the point about managing one relationship (with the US) but not the other (with Europe, with the proviso you note about protecting increasing competitivity) is spot on.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 10:28:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... a Singapore peg ... a peg to a basket of currencies ... and when they adopted it, in transition for a peg to the US$, the basket was clearly dominated by USD.

The smooth devaluation to the USD and spikiness to the Euro suggests that they are leaving the USD dominant in the peg and shifting the peg, but having the Singapore peg leaves them free to reduce the weight of the USD in their peg at any time.

Since the average valuations are heading in exactly the direction of the opportunity I pointed out earlier this year, allowing the USD rate to rise to lean against imported commodity price inflation, but not so far as to increase the valuation of the Yuan/Renminbi against the Euro, it would seem that the make up of the basket of currencies has a political benefit. If the US complains about the trade deficit, they can say, "but the yuan is revaluating against the dollar", while if Eurozone nations complain about the trade deficit, "but, that's just the float against the dollar ... we are revaluing against the dollar, but we can only go so fast if we are going to avoid economic distress".


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 12:45:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The figure says that the Renminbi is dropping vs. the €. But the $ is dropping faster against the € than the Renminbi. Thus, from the point of view of the Renminbi, the € is going up and the $ is going down.

It's like a feather and a rock falling from the top of a tower. From the point of view of the feather, the top of the tower is moving upwards. But since the rock falls faster than the feather, the rock is moving downwards both from the point of view of the feather and the top of the tower. Nothing particularly mysterious about that.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 12:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But what if we regulate air pressure?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 01:04:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know. Fluid dynamics was never my thing :-P

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jun 25th, 2008 at 04:46:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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