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But he always does.

Anyone got a calibration of his past performance?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 15th, 2008 at 04:50:45 PM EST
Well, he clearly predicted what is happening now, when others were saying this crisis would be a short one...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Tue Jul 15th, 2008 at 05:29:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What he doesn't seem to say clearly enough is that the bailout of the big banks (but not the small) represents a massive further transfer of wealth from the poor and middle classes to the super-rich which will exacerbate the wealth inequality which is at the heart of the crisis in the first place.  Looks like Marx could be right after all!

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jul 15th, 2008 at 06:04:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He says it:

the Treasury bailout plan (the mother of all moral hazard bailout) is socialism for the rich, the well connected and Wall Street; it is the continuation of a corrupt system where profits are privatized and losses are socialized. Instead of wiping out shareholders of the two GSEs, replacing corrupt and incompetent managers and forcing a haircut on the claims of the creditors/bondholders such a plan bails out shareholders, managers and creditors at a massive cost to U.S. taxpayers.


"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Tue Jul 15th, 2008 at 06:09:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes but if the consequence of how the crisis is tackled is to make the original cause of the crisis even worse, what is the basis for the eventual recovery he seems to expect?  He doesn't seem to share the "anglo-disease" analysis that the root cause of the crisis is 30 years of ever greater transfer of resources and power from the poor to the super-rich.

If the chosen solution to the fire is to pour oil onto it, surely we can expect an ever greater conflagration?

How can "consumer sentiment" recover if consumers are even more impoverished by inflation and a net transfer of resources to Oil producers?

How can the US recover if the escalating costs of Iraq are compounded by increased oil prices.

I don't see the basis for recovery in his analysis...

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jul 15th, 2008 at 06:23:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The current administration in Washington sees their job as protecting and building the assets of the rich. The very fact that the rich are rich is justification for their protection.  Like saving the King at all costs. Perhaps many in Congress have bought into the frame that this is a heroic rescue of society for the benefit of all. Most think they are doing their job as well as they can.  The rest of society is just a PR problem.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jul 15th, 2008 at 09:18:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think he sees a drop in commodity prices as a global slowdown to be ineluctable. He has a few articles on Bretton Woods II, the system of pegged rates to the dollar from russia, GCC countries and Asia, and as that system fails the recession for those economies is likely to be huge too.

But I agree that he does not acknowledge that the recession from Japan had pretty much the same origins and was a real catastrophy. He does acknowledge it however in what he thinks the correct solutions are: no bail outs.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 05:28:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and how long will the taxpayers stand it?

they're bailing out the richer at the cost of inflation, which punishes the poor.

whose patience and capacity for submission is finite.


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 06:31:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is that inflation can be presented as a problem for everybody, and caused by those nasty Arabs, Chinese and foreign commodity producers.  The fact that it is also caused by US policy choices and the devaluation of the dollar will be obscured by partisan politics.  Pretty soon it will all be Obama's fault.

The real problem with Paddy O'Bama's anodyne centrist campaign is that it contains no analysis of the roots of the problem and thus it will all be his fault as soon as he takes office.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 06:45:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's this? We have a Black Muslim who's now of Irish descent?

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 07:13:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Irish were the blacks of the modern western world before the Muslims ever were

Obama's Irish roots found to be Protestant - Telegraph

New research has traced Mr Obama's maternal family tree back to his great-great-great-great grandfather Joseph Kearney, a well-to-do shoemaker from Moneygall, Co Offaly, who lived from 1794 to 1861. Mr Obama's roots were uncovered by Canon Stephen Neill, a Church of Ireland rector, who found baptismal and marriage records in the house of a late parishioner, Elizabeth Short.


"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 07:54:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Shit, now you tell me Obama is Scots-Irish?

How the hell am I supposed to be able to vote for him now?

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 12:42:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's an Irish-Scottish Black Muslim Christian Working Class Yankee from Hawaii who has been to Harvard.

It's tragic that he's not also gay and a former fighter pilot, but I suppose you can't have everything.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 02:47:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know where the Scots bit is coming from - and why isn't Indonesia mentioned?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 06:03:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because Indonesia are One of the Good Guys? Suharto was Our SOB, IIRC...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 06:07:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...whose half-sister is Indonesian-American, and whose brother-in-law is a Chinese-Canadian.

As Maher pointed out one night: "Oh, Congress looks like America -- we've got blacks, Asians, Hispanics, and whatever else is in Barack Obama."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Jul 18th, 2008 at 07:33:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
funniest comment evah!

you forgot he has a grandmother in kenya living in a mud hut!

roots, baby!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 20th, 2008 at 04:35:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Irish were the blacks of the modern western world before the Muslims ever were.

Oh, quit your whining.  We gave you Boston, didn't we? ;)

Actually, one of my family members has an old (very old) sign that used to hang over a pub somewhere.  It reads "No Dogs or Irish".  It's hanging in his garage somewhere.  Being partly of Irish descent, he gets a kick out of it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Jul 18th, 2008 at 07:43:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This jus a bit too much doom-friendly for me.

I don't mind bringing bad news (in the energy or financial fields), but I really can't be moved by the feeling of glee that some may have when reporting bad news.

I personally much prefer the alternative project attitude, like underlining the progress in wind energy (thanks to Jérôme) for example.

Isn't there any good perspectives to emphasise? Actions taken in front of the finance crisis that may be efficient? That's one of the drawbacks of bringing only bad news: you risk turning up as a prophet of doom.

by Xavier in Paris on Fri Jul 18th, 2008 at 09:08:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
IMHO, the most valuable thing that can be done now is to spread an understanding of the damage that the current set of ideologies and policies have wrought, how self-serving they are for those who promote them, and how essential it is for them to be replaced to ameliorate the damage that remains to be done and put us in a position to begin rebuilding.

We are being hit by a financial hurricane.  The response is like that towards Katrina.  Turning away from the ugly truths on display only gives the shock capitalist boys and girls more scope to operate.  Paralysis by revulsion only abets those to whom revulsion is not possible--the sociopaths who have been in charge.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jul 18th, 2008 at 02:53:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree on the "make the information available" bit anyway. What gives me afterthought is the "it's going to be hell" bit...

What I'm feeling more comfortable is: what's happening is  due to washington consensus policies during the last thirty years, now, if you don't want it to continue the same way, costing money to everyone, it's regulation time, and let's keep at it.

by Xavier in Paris on Fri Jul 18th, 2008 at 05:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that, at best, there is an OPPORTUNITY to begin discrediting their anti-regulatory, "free market," "freedom of the individual" rhetoric.  My concern is that there will not be a sufficient response to that opportunity to carry the day in many or any of our countries.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jul 18th, 2008 at 07:23:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
more pooties?

but it's therapeutic!

doom porn i mean...

kidding aside, i love the mix here. we don't ignore the worst, and we use vicious, nasty, black humour to try and cushion the shock, lashing out at shadows...

i agree about the positive stuff tho, it's great to see how and when things change for the better. i try to do this with solar, and jerome's successes with wind are welcome fodder after our tireless deconstructions of what's wrong with the world.

Yes We Can!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 20th, 2008 at 04:47:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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