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Luis, I think projecting flat electricity usage is reasonable. If I had to pick on one way I'd say it's conservative.  Even with peak oil and significantly increased use of electricity in transport, total electricity demand could fall.

We are massively wasteful of electricity today. A supply side programme as aggressive and ambitious as this could be matched by demand side actions reducing electricity demand by several tens of percentage points - freeing up enough capacity to electrify transport.

The key point is that electrified transport is dramatically more efficient than oil fuelled transport.  For example it was suggested that the entire UK car fleet could be replaced with electric cars and only require national electricity generation to increase by 12%:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2345

12% is well, well within scope for efficiency gains from current electricity usage.

by Chris Vernon on Fri Jul 18th, 2008 at 06:22:30 AM EST
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