I completely agree that Obama is a vote-getter, if his popularity remains high during the next 18 months. But I think as well Obama will mention in his speech the 'necessity' that Europe takes more responsibility in Afghanistan.
This is walking a tightrope. Probably there will be audible objection on this issue from the audience (I think about 80% of Germans would like to withdraw as fast as possible from Afghanistan). Either he will quite strongly insist on that. Which could strongly dampen the effect as a vote-getter. Or he is weak on this, which will mean, that the US media will portray him as incapable of getting European support despite alleged pro-Europeaness.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers