That about Iraq was written in conditional before Obama's recent policy speech about refocusing from Iraq ( = lost) to Afghanistan ( = still winnable), so certainly, it was a wrong estimation.

Your prediction of public reaction to Obama's expected demands on Europe is shared by Karl-Theodor Freiherr/CSU, whom I cited above with "Sommertheater". (BTW I forgot to make clear: he is also criticising his own camp there, and deviates from the party line.)

Die "neue Begeisterung" der SPD für die USA sei an sich "begrüßenswert", sagte er. Allerdings bleibe abzuwarten, ob sich der "Enthusiasmus erschöpft, wenn Senator Obama in dieser oder einer künftigen Rede einen höheren deutschen Beitrag in internationalen Operationen einfordert".

The "new enthusiasm" of the SPD for the USA is "welcome" in itself, he said. However, it remains to be seen whether the "enthusiasm will be exhausted once Senator Obama demands a higher German contribution to international operations in this or any future speech".

As for the German left-wing's, rather than the SPD's reaction, what I wonder about is the position of the Left Party and its voters in general. Perhaps jandsm or Jeffersonian Democrat can tell us more about the mood in the party. Would the Left Party profile itself early on with some criticism of Obama, the eventual disillusion of SPD voters with him that you and Freiherr predict could lead to some shift of balance within the German left-wing.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}