Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
  • Poland is EU and NATO. The Russians are not insane. They may consider Poland their legitimate sphere of influence, but they also know that, unlike with Georgia, The West(TM) will respond in force to an invasion of Poland. Irregardless of the quality and quantity of Russian casus belli.

  • Poland does not, AFAIK, have any large, pro-Russian breakaway regions, and has certainly not launched more or less unprovoked invasions of them recently.

  • There would be little or no precedent for treating deployment of strategic weapons as casus belli (except the Bay of Pigs invasion, and that may not be the most fortunate choice of justification to invoke...).

  • War with Poland would threaten the infrastructure Russia uses to sell oil and gas to Europe.

  • If Russia wants to put the thumbscrews on Poland, all they have to do is turn off the heat in the middle of the winter. They don't want to do that, of course, because that would threaten their ability to trade with Europe. But war would threaten that ability even more.

So I don't think Russia is going to declare war on Poland. Or even hurt them much. Ukraine might be another ball game, however. But I still don't see it happening without significantly greater provocation than deployment of strategic weapons. The Russians are not insane.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Aug 13th, 2008 at 11:27:33 AM EST
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