Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I'm not in the business of justify any countries actions, I'm just trying to understand them, and one framework for doing so is to work on the real political assumption that each state acts in its own self-interest.

I don't believe Georgia acted in its own self interest in attack South Ossetia (and Russian peace keepers there) and so I have to look for another explanation - e.g. Saakashvili is a fool or he was misled by his American advisers.

I can understand why Russia seized on this opportunity to reassert its influence in the region and it might even put further pressure on Georgia to get rid of Saakashvili and the US base there.

I can also understand that this wll make all Russia's other neighbours extremely nervous.  They have to decide whether they want to develop good neighbourly relations with Russia or risk further antagonising Russia by joining Nato.

Realistically, is Poland/Nato/US going to go to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine, Bylorussia, Georgia, Crimea?  If the answer is no, then it is in those countries interest to develop friendly relation with Russia.

Is it in the EU's interest to to foment a return to the Cold War?  If not, then it is in the EU's interest to promote friendly relations with Russia and distance itself from a Neo-con led US.

(Politics 101 for small nations.  If your neighbouring state is much more powerful militarily than you are, it is best to develop economic and political relationships which reduce the risk of militarism becoming the dominant MO between your countries.)

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Aug 19th, 2008 at 06:16:49 PM EST
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