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Third, official statistics have exaggerated the slowdown. GDP figures for the first quarter were flattered by the mild winter, which boosted construction, and an early Easter, which helped tourism and travel. Smooth out the data and they are consistent with long-term eurozone economic stability, although previously one might have used adjectives such as "sclerotic".

I remember rather clearly how the very strong growth figures for the first quarter were described as a temporary aberratino that would not last. I don't remember the same critical note being given to this quarter's numbers, seen immediately as proof of the eurozone's crash. The fact is, taken together, you have rather normal numbers.


Tenth, global financial market turmoil shows few signs of wreaking significant economic damage directly on the eurozone, where the financial services sector has not been an important driver of growth. Bank lending to businesses remains strong and eurozone consumers' finances, generally, are not over-stretched.

Eleventh, no fundamental flaws have been found in the main engines of eurozone growth (unlike in banking). Economists once questioned whether manufacturing had a future in high-cost Germany, but nobody does nowadays.

In other words: the eurozone does not suffer from the Anglo Disease, and still produces stuff which the rest of the world is interested in buying, even when expensive. That does not sound like doom.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 25th, 2008 at 05:18:40 AM EST
Doesn't prevent a certain French government to shreik "crisis" after the Q2 numbers came out, which of course means they will all claim credit when the numbers "rebound".

Silver lining? The window of opportunity for further gifts to the wealthy via the paquet fiscale has been lowered quite a bit. When the other side starts believe it's own bullshit, it can be an advantage...

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Mon Aug 25th, 2008 at 06:12:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I remember rather clearly how the very strong growth figures for the first quarter were described as a temporary aberratino that would not last. I don't remember the same critical note being given to this quarter's numbers, seen immediately as proof of the eurozone's crash.

Depends by whom. I remember rather clearly how the very strong growth figures (+0.6% -mind you they have been twice revised downwards since, to 0.4%) for the first quarter were described by Christine Lagarde as glorious and oh-so-significant, proof positive that Sarkozy had anticipated everything and that the infamous "paquet fiscal" worked brilliantly and was just what had been needed, while the second quarter (-0.3%) was merely described as due to a worldwide tendency, that we had adverted better than most (really? based on that figure?) thanks to the glorious "paquet fiscal", proof positive that we needed more of it.

Methinks some people have caught the neoliberal disease on our shores...

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Aug 25th, 2008 at 06:15:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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