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The ECB has the following numbers for the Eurozone on its web site
  • 1) Population growth .6%, so he was probably speaking about the EU, where .3% sounds reasonable
  • 2) M3 growth (June) 9.5%, this is clearly not a credit crunch of which first signs can be seen in the US
  • 3) CA balance -0.68%, so this is reasonable close to balanced trade. While the US still has to do something about its CA deficit. A rapid increase in savings rate could lead to more trouble in the short term in the US.
  • 4) full public gross deficit -2.2%, this is not good, but it is reasonable to assume that the US deficit is quite a bit bigger. Unfortunately it is very difficult to get similar numbers for the US.
  • 5) full public debt 67.1%, again it is difficult to find numbers with similar meaning for the US, but I expect numbers roughly in the same dimension. States seem to have little debt, but the community debt is as well a trillion dollar market, adding to the ~5.4 trillion federal debt.

Points 3+4+5 tell me, that the US doing better so far is not a good hint, they will doing better in the future. There fiscal capabilities to boost economic growth with public debt is soon exhausted. To keep interests low, the US needs financing by the peg countries, which will make a bail out of F&F inevitable, no matter what it costs.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Tue Aug 26th, 2008 at 04:27:29 PM EST

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