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I check electoral-vote.com for an overview every morning.  And pollster.com is the best for finding new polls.

I think that latest CNN polls out of swing states are pretty amazing.  Third party candidate are going to matter a lot.  Nader is trying to get into the debates, and if he does I think that he will pick up a lot of voters.


Colorado (670 RV, 4%)
McCain 47, Obama 46
McCain 43, Obama 42, Nader 7, Barr 3, McKinney 2

Nevada (625 RV, 4%)
Obama 49, McCain 44
Obama 41, McCain 41, Nader 6, Barr 5, McKinney 3

New Mexico (659 RV, 4%)
Obama 53, McCain 40
Obama 50, McCain 36, Nader 8, Barr/McKinney 0

Pennsylvania (669 RV, 4%)
Obama 48, McCain 43
Obama 47, McCain 38, Nader 7, Barr 1

Nader's numbers are with zero media coverage and no ads.  If he gets into the debates I only see that going up.  The extent to which the Nader vote is a vote for him and to what extent it's a "none of the above" vote is something that's not clear to me.  For all the coverage of this election, I think that there's a lot of disaffected people on both sides.

I think that the Palin pick solidified McCain's position with the social conservatives.

I don't think that Obama has done the same with working class whites.  And working class whites are going to be the bloc that decides Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 06:08:55 PM EST
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Thanks.

David Frum's Diary on National Review Online

Here's I fear the worst harm that may be done by this selection. The McCain campaign's slogan is "country first." It's a good slogan, and it aptly describes John McCain, one of the most self-sacrificing, gallant, and honorable men ever to seek the presidency.

But question: If it were your decision, and you were putting your country first, would you put an untested small-town mayor a heartbeat away from the presidency?



Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 06:24:52 PM EST
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I just heard Sarah Palin speak on CNN.

This election is over.  She's got this very working class look, and her husband is going to interesting to hear from as well.

Alaska has the third highest unionization rate in the country, and Todd Palin is a member of the United Steelworkers.  So long as he doesn't make a lot of gaffes, he could be a real asset if they set him down in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 06:44:45 PM EST
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I pulled some video from (ugh...) Fox, and she's good on the stand.

People don't vote for principles, they vote for... themselves, and the candidate who most reminds them of themselves.

Obama loses badly on that score with the low information types, because he's black, he's cool, he's intelligent, and he's confident to the point of edging close to the wrong edge of slick.

He's not like anyone most of these people will know personally. And he's certainly not someone the low information types can see themselves as.

The R's one and only talent is conning the low information types into believing that they're just like ordinary folk. And Palin is going to be a winner at that.

The fact that she is, clearly, completely insane from a reality based point of view isn't going to be any more of a problem than it usually is.

But... I think Obama knows this, and he's working supremely hard on his ground game, on voter registration, and GOTV efforts to compensate for the GOP's looming lemming-like love of stupid.

So while the race just got tighter, it's not over yet.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 08:20:49 PM EST
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Normally, the effect of this announcement should depend on reaction from Obama and other Dems. But I don't expect much effective reaction.

I shouldn't talk like this yet, but Dems are really good in... let's say, staying away from exactly right decisions. One thing that Palin's pick projects is that there is nothing really exceptional, let alone menacing, developing in America (and in the world). It all looks like just another political Super Bowl between Value Republicans and Democ Rats, with nothing but fun at stake for regular folks. Even terrorism gets a "wink wink".

Democrats had been really silent of how radical are transformations of this Bush (and speaking of Reagan only respectfully). They never tried to argue that things are not really normal American. I do not really believe this is merely a self-hurting trend. If big money can buy presidents and all the media, can't it buy convenient type of political opponents and "consensus" candidates? Isn't the whole nomination "process" of Dems this year a perfect set up for Palin's entrance?

I still think that Obama should win, but I won't be surprised with a creeping meltdown of his campaign, just as it was with Kerry, Dean, Gore, Dukakis and what else? Show something else, Obama!

by das monde on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 06:00:57 AM EST
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I still think, Obama will win the election - big. I think ~95% chance, that Obama wins, ~5% risk, that McCain wins.

However, as a non-American with domestic things like health care not exactly a top priority in my judgment about US politicians, I think Palin wouldn't make a McCain presidency worse. If she is kind of an isolationist or even a better a non-interventionist, then contrary to the notion some have made, McCain NOT diing would be the risk, not vice versa. (That's not saying I wish McCain to be dead. I wish him a quiet live, without the trouble of the political circus)

With respect to climate change, the legislative could bring measures into law, without the executive doing anything. But going for war seems to be pretty much a president thing. At least the legislative seems to be incapable of requireing to bring troops home.
To get a 60+ majority in the senate, might be as good in many senses for many issues, as to get the president.

From a simpel techical/craftsmen perspective a 2 years ministerpresident in Germany would be more qualified to govern, than a 20 years Member of the Bundestag. Experience in foreign policy in the last 20 years in the US means experience of breaking international law, bullying smaller nations, kidnapping and torture. Common sense and willingness to hear what others say would give a better policy than the current one, I guess.


Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 10:56:11 AM EST
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