Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I check electoral-vote.com for an overview every morning.  And pollster.com is the best for finding new polls.

I think that latest CNN polls out of swing states are pretty amazing.  Third party candidate are going to matter a lot.  Nader is trying to get into the debates, and if he does I think that he will pick up a lot of voters.

Colorado (670 RV, 4%)
McCain 47, Obama 46
McCain 43, Obama 42, Nader 7, Barr 3, McKinney 2

Nevada (625 RV, 4%)
Obama 49, McCain 44
Obama 41, McCain 41, Nader 6, Barr 5, McKinney 3

New Mexico (659 RV, 4%)
Obama 53, McCain 40
Obama 50, McCain 36, Nader 8, Barr/McKinney 0

Pennsylvania (669 RV, 4%)
Obama 48, McCain 43
Obama 47, McCain 38, Nader 7, Barr 1

Nader's numbers are with zero media coverage and no ads.  If he gets into the debates I only see that going up.  The extent to which the Nader vote is a vote for him and to what extent it's a "none of the above" vote is something that's not clear to me.  For all the coverage of this election, I think that there's a lot of disaffected people on both sides.

I think that the Palin pick solidified McCain's position with the social conservatives.

I don't think that Obama has done the same with working class whites.  And working class whites are going to be the bloc that decides Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 06:08:55 PM EST
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