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Given that Obama also wants to change US policy on Cuba it might be best to just write off Florida and focus resources elsewhere.  You have to make some hard choices in a tight campaign - otherwise you risk losing by narrow margins in a lot of states.  The VP choice is also about making a choice as to what states you really have to get and which ones you can afford to lose, if need be.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Aug 10th, 2008 at 01:51:27 PM EST
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I wouldn't completely write it off, but I wouldn't bet the house on it either.  As I've said many times, Florida is not the moderate state that people think it is.  It's quite conservative, once you get beyond the stereotypical images of beaches and nasty fruit-flavored mixed drinks.  Outside of the liberal cities, Florida is basically Mississippi without black people.

Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties will go for Obama by comfortable margins.  Leon, Jefferson and Gadsden counties will do the same.  Some areas around Jacksonville and Tampon Bay, too.  Alachua County (University of Florida) will go big for Obama.

But all that is more than balanced out by other areas of the state.  He could win it in a tight, one-point-ish race, but it's just as likely he loses it by four or five points.

Cubans are of less concern to me there, because there's nothing to really lose with them.  The exiles -- and, yes, I'm stereotyping here, but this is my experience -- are a pretty nasty group of people.  Very racist, very bigoted, very economically right-wing.  In other words, they're perfect Republicans on everything except their skin color.

No surprise: The Communists won in Cuba, so the fascists established Havana-North (The City Formerly Known As Miami).

Fortunately, there are many young Cubans now who aren't the nut jobs their parents are, and they seem more receptive to Obama.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 10th, 2008 at 02:05:56 PM EST
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