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Can't argue with these numbers, and if the election were held today, Obama would win by a clear margin.  However it doesn't take much of a swing to put nearly all the swing states back into the GOP camp.  Polls are very bad at assessing differential turnout especially so far in advance of the actual election, but this could be the key for Obama - provided he can maintain the enthusiasm edge.

Perhaps you are right about the polls being manipulated to keep the race interesting, but you don't hear anyone complaining that they are different from the private polls being taken.  I still find it extraordinary that Obama isn't 10 point ahead given the performance of the two campaigns.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 7th, 2008 at 08:56:23 PM EST
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