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Why do you think Obama is going to lose Michigan?  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Aug 7th, 2008 at 10:18:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Couple of things that are going to work to Obama's disadvantage.

  1. The polling for the state has been tight, and it's going to be close no matter what.

  2. I don't think that Obama is "left" enough on the economy, and I think that his flip flopping on trade is going to really come to bite him in the ass here.  GM is spinning the drain, and I don't see Obama taking that seriously.  A quick check of Austin Goolsbee, and Jason Furman shows why he's got a piss poor economic message. He's being driven by free marketers.  

  3. Kwame Kilpatrick. There's a major political scandal going on right now involving the Democratic (and African-American) mayor of Detroit. Kilpatrick was thrown in jail today (and is likely be removed from office, and his mother narrowly survived a primary challenge last night.

As for Obama, the Republicans are going to nail Obama with this video of Obama endorsing Kilpatrick.  A Democratic candidate needs a large turnout from Detroit to win the state.  All this can have a serious impact on turnout in the city.  And might affect voters in rural parts of the state.

4) Ralph Nader.  Most polls of Michigan don't include Ralph Nader.  Nader is of Syrian descent, and something like 5% of the people in Michigan are of Middle Eastern  descent.  A poll in May showed Nader at 10% in the state.  The incident with the two young supporters who were wearing headcovering being asked to move to not appear in a picture with Obama didn't play well.

Any one of these, little alone all of them have the potential to make Michigan a hard state for Obama to win.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Aug 7th, 2008 at 11:25:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks, somethings to think on.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:13:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Polling:  again I say, pollsters base their polling screens on historic data.  If there is historic turn-out patterns in this election then the race is tight.  If this is a 'change' election then the polls are going to be seriously wrong.  I don't know which of those two IF statements are correct; nobody else does either.  We will find-out in November.  

One thing to note: Bush won in 04 by the Fundie turn-out.  They turned-out in record number for vote for Idiot.  If they had turned-out in 2000 numbers Kerry would have won by 9 million votes.  

Economy:  I agree.  Obama is nowhere near Left enough for my tastes.  But he is to the Left of McCain.  You know more about the internal politics of the UAW than I so you tell me if they would rather see McCain than Obama.  

Kilpatrick:  Do you honestly expect AA turn-out in Detroit to be down for the first AA to have a shot at the presidency?  That's just crazy.

Nader:  He should be included in the polls exactly because of his (latent?) potential impact on the Arab-American voting block.  


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:40:59 PM EST
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