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I see a path, although I think MfM's talk about Michigan is more wishful thinking than serious analysis.  (He could lose it, but to put it in perspective, I think it's only slightly more likely than Obama losing Wisconsin, which is highly unlikely.)  I think the election is going to move a bit in our way as the fall arrives.

McCain's path to victory is Bush's '04 path to victory.  I think the talk of McCain in Michigan and Pennsylvania is more a product of the McCain Mancrush of Chris Matthews, Tim Russert, and others from the Rust Belt who grew up with a little too much industrial waste in their water supplies.

Obama has a few paths.  Obviously a win in Florida or Ohio clinches.  If he wins one of those, there's nothing to talk about.  If we assume he gets Iowa and New Mexico, then he only needs one more state with 5 or more EVs.  Nevada would get him to a tie (thus a win since we control Congress).

A combination of two from Montana, the Dakotas and Alaska does it.  Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Colorado, and perhaps a few others would fit the one-shot win, along with Ohio and Florida.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Aug 7th, 2008 at 11:10:26 PM EST
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