Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Here's a hyperlink.  Happy?

Now let me explain what I think you miss: Stop looking at raw numbers, first of all, and start looking at ranges.  What happens with Obama in the state?  He bounces around from the mid- to high-40s (low-50s once), probably dependent upon how hard leaners are pushed combined with the natural back-and-forth of summer campaigning, while McCain has been essentially flat in the high-30s to low-40s the entire time.  Same as the national polls.

Then take into account the fact that McCain is the nominee of the incumbent party, and, while the effect won't be as noticeable as if he were an actual incumbent, consider that the incumbent party typically has a difficult time attracting undecided voters.

I quite agree that Michigan looks to be a little closer than in 2004.  Michigan is one of the states that's becoming more conservative over time (which is why I and others have focused our attention on the more relevant West for the long term).  I just don't agree that it's going to continue down that path as we approach November, at least not in the short term.  (Long-term, Michigan will probably wind up Republican, along with Pennsylvania, just as states like Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Georgia will wind up Democratic.  That's what realignments are all about.)

I'm not sure why Kwame Kilpatrick's idiocy has anything to do with Obama, beyond the fact that both are black.  And, as it is, McCain doesn't seem terribly interested in fighting too hard there.  (Nor does Obama.  What's that tell you?)  In fact, he seems to be more interested in, for example, Sturgis, SD.  McCain's certainly spending a handsome sum here in Virginia.

Now onto Nader and the Arab vote.  (Do Arabs vote for Arabs the way blacks vote for blacks?  Didn't work out so well for Nikki Tinker in Memphis tonight.)  I'm not sure what you're on.  Arabs vote overwhelmingly Democratic, because the Republicans have an apparent desire to, you know, kill them.  In fact, if you'll have a look at the behavior of polls when Nader and Barr are added, you'll note that they actually tend to hurt McCain, not Obama.

Again, not saying McCain can't win it.  Just saying it's not likely.  And what I mean by "wishful thinking" is that you seem to have a very Rust-Belt-centric view of politics and a certain anger over the fact that the center of gravity in American politics is steadily moving away from it to places like Nevada, New Mexico and Texas.  You also clearly have issues with Obama, to such an extent that you'll happily excuse the behavior of people like Clinton.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 12:23:01 AM EST
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