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My Prediction.
Hillary is the VP pick.
Hillary will bring home Ohio and Florida.

Game Over My Friends:-)

By the way, don't take this to the bank.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 11:18:52 AM EST
It's possible, actually.  The addition of Bill Clinton speaking right before the veep at the convention might lead one to think that way.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 01:01:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or it could be Obama and Dean are stroking the DLC/Clinton faction of the party.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 01:49:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or that, yes.  I'm kind of expecting the unexpected on the veep pick.  Not someone from way out in left field, necessarily, but not one of the five or six names routinely talked about over the last few weeks (Sebelius, Kaine, Bayh, Biden, Reed, and maybe one more).  Which is why I keep leaning a bit towards Richardson, who's been awfully quiet lately.  I think the names that keep popping up are head-fakes.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:09:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And, for the record, I think Hillary would fall under "Expect the Unexpected" without being way out in left field.

As you know, I'm not a fan of Hillary.  I'll suck it up, if that's what it takes to win.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 03:08:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton doesn't bring anything to the table and has huge - in the 50% range - hard negatives.

I would like to see Richardson as the Veep to help drive the Latino vote.  Two minorities on the ticket might not be a good idea, though.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 01:48:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, they could always go out and say, "Hey, between us we've got enough DNA for one white woman." ;)

Richardson's appeal to Latinos is incredibly tempting.  Making Latinos a solid Democratic constituency, not unlike Jews and blacks, would go a long way to cementing a Democratic majority for the future.

I don't see what Clinton brings, aside from appeasing the fifteen or sixteen "PUMAs" out there.  She get us maybe another two points in the polls, and we might well get those anyway.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:14:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That was as a Presidential choice - however many of those who dislike her may still feel that she has "earned" the VP slot.  You'd have to do new polling on her now as a VP choice to see whether that would change he negatives.  I suspect it would quite significantly.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:22:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton is very popular with the old retired Jewish voters in South Florida, mostly from the north. Their numbers are large enough to bring home the state for Obama.

Remember, you heard it here first!

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:32:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And talk about CELEBRITY. With Barry, Bill and Hill, that's like having Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig with a young Joe Dimaggio to bat cleanup. McCain will be lucky to get a newspaper line here and there.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, they're not.  We win those anyway.  They're all ultraliberals who always show up.  We could nominate a rock, and they'd still show up.

The key to Florida is the center of the state -- the I-4 Corridor from Tampon Bay to Mickey Mouse Land.  Mostly socially moderate, business-minded Republicans, but with pretty big, and growing, Latino and student populations.

Win that, and you win the state.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:42:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The word that I see is that Obama is a somewhat weak with older Floridians (that includes south Florida). If that's true, the polls are close enough that Hillary could turn it since she's very strong with seniors.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 03:55:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not really.  He's doing fine there, and whatever he's missing can be picked up by some campaigning by Obama, Robert Wexler and others.  If he's somewhere between two points up and four points down from McCain, then trust me, he's doing just fine with the base.  Hillary might get him a bit, but not much, and she might actually turn off the swing voters he really needs.

Gotta win the I-4 Corridor to win Florida.

As an aside, Robert "Fire-Breathing Liberal" Wexler would actually be an interesting choice for veep.  He's got an annoying voice, but muchos passion.  I like the guy.  And he's been a real star for Obama whenever he's been needed.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 04:34:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To see what I'm speaking of see the latest PPP Fl. poll. McCain leads 47-44 but among over 65 he leads 56-33.
Link

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 06:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, but that's not abnormal for Florida, and to some extent it simply reflects how Obama shifts demographics.  That 33% is going to be South Florida.  Now that the elderly group is primarily made up of people from the Silent Generation rather than the GIs, the elderly will be more conservative.  Note that we haven't won the elderly since 2000, back when the GIs were still the dominant group in that demographic.

So some of it's Obama, and some of it's a natural shift.

It's a similar pattern all over the country: Obama's winning blowouts -- better than 2-to-1 -- with 18-30 voters, and losing badly, but by a smaller margin, with the elderly.  The problem for McCain is that the Obama campaign seems to have figured out how to get the kids to show up.  And there are a lot more Millennials and late-Xers than there are Silent-Gen'ers.

The problem for Obama is that, while these are great trends in (say) Virginia or Nevada, they're not where you want to be in Florida, because Florida's, of course, the oldest state in the union.

Maybe Hillary improves on that.  Probably at least a bit.  But does she improve on it enough to overcome what I think she'd lose him on I-4?  That's an interesting question.

Undoubtedly they've been polling on it, so they'll know better than I will.

My interest in a Hillary veep slot relates to three states: Florida and Ohio, obviously, and then Arkansas (with potential bleeding into Missouri).  Can a Hillary veep pick flip Arkansas?

Also, can you go with Hillary without damaging Obama's brand in the West?  That's an important question, because the Clintons are not well-liked out there.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Aug 9th, 2008 at 11:48:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that Obama also wants to change US policy on Cuba it might be best to just write off Florida and focus resources elsewhere.  You have to make some hard choices in a tight campaign - otherwise you risk losing by narrow margins in a lot of states.  The VP choice is also about making a choice as to what states you really have to get and which ones you can afford to lose, if need be.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Aug 10th, 2008 at 01:51:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't completely write it off, but I wouldn't bet the house on it either.  As I've said many times, Florida is not the moderate state that people think it is.  It's quite conservative, once you get beyond the stereotypical images of beaches and nasty fruit-flavored mixed drinks.  Outside of the liberal cities, Florida is basically Mississippi without black people.

Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties will go for Obama by comfortable margins.  Leon, Jefferson and Gadsden counties will do the same.  Some areas around Jacksonville and Tampon Bay, too.  Alachua County (University of Florida) will go big for Obama.

But all that is more than balanced out by other areas of the state.  He could win it in a tight, one-point-ish race, but it's just as likely he loses it by four or five points.

Cubans are of less concern to me there, because there's nothing to really lose with them.  The exiles -- and, yes, I'm stereotyping here, but this is my experience -- are a pretty nasty group of people.  Very racist, very bigoted, very economically right-wing.  In other words, they're perfect Republicans on everything except their skin color.

No surprise: The Communists won in Cuba, so the fascists established Havana-North (The City Formerly Known As Miami).

Fortunately, there are many young Cubans now who aren't the nut jobs their parents are, and they seem more receptive to Obama.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 10th, 2008 at 02:05:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
old retired Jewish voters in South Florida

America is a fantastically compartmented country, More like several countries really.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sun Aug 10th, 2008 at 12:57:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I hope you are right!

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 03:02:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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