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Yes, I'm familiar with this argument from my time working on campaigns.  It's a symptom of a horrible affliction called TB (True Believer's) most often manifested by the rationalization of any information indicating that your guy is headed into the shitter with a reason why it just ain't so

Is that the TB that had you predicting a meteoric rise for Edwards in Nevada, while I predicted a crash?  Right.  My predictions are hardly perfect, especially contest-to-contest, but as I predicted in February of 2007 that Obama and McCain would win their respective nominations, saw Obama's win in Iowa coming, etc, I think most would tell you I can read polls just fine.

"TB" -- very cute, though.

Obama is going to have to explain his speech at the Economic Club of Detroit at which he spoke glowingly of Kilpatrick in May, after he had been charged by the DA (and made a death threat against her.)  Here's the tape of Obama praising Kilpatrick.

Meh.  You could be right, but I doubt it.  If Pastorgate didn't kill him off, I have trouble seeing Kwame Kilpatrick doing it.

Fair point about media buys, but these spending figures don't tell us a helluva a lot, first of all.  Note that McCain, sensing the primaries were about to end, went on the air in Pennsylvania and Michigan, presumably hoping to capitalize on supposed divisions with the Democratic Party.

Problem: It, of course, didn't work.  And you'll note that we've gone, in the averages, from a bare McCain lead to a decent Obama lead.  Deduct -- for the record, I'm looking at RCP -- that silly Detroit News poll, since newspaper polls are notoriously bad, and you've got Obama somewhere around 47-48% and McCain somewhere around 42-43%.  McCain hasn't had a lead there since, I believe, late-May.

The figures really tell you that it's incredibly expensive to advertise in the North.  No kidding.

I agree that Michigan matters.  You're right to point out that McCain winning Michigan or PA likely means a McCain win.  We'll see what happens.


Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 12:58:11 PM EST
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Drew J Jones:
but as I predicted in February of 2007 that Obama and McCain would win their respective nominations, saw Obama's win in Iowa coming, etc, I think most would tell you I can read polls just fine.

Wow - there were polls back then predicting Obama and McCain?  The ones I recall had Clinton and Giulliani well in the lead.  Where are they now? :-)

In fairness, I think you read polls pretty well too!

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:07:11 PM EST
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Thanks.

No, the polls weren't predicting Obama-McCain.  They were predicting, as you said, Giuliani-Clinton.  But no sane person believed Giuliani would be the Rep nominee.

I bet on a few things back then: I thought McCain would somehow find his way to the nomination, since it was his "turn".  Betting on the old candidate whose turn has arrived is usually a decent bet with the GOPers.

On the Dem side, I thought Clinton would run a top-down, ad-fueled campaign that would leave her penniless by Super Tuesday.  I figured the grassroots would go with Obama, since grassroots Dems tend to be less than overwhelmingly excited about the Clintons.  (I knew Edwards would appeal to them, or at least the ones who weren't around for John Edwards 1.0.  But Edwards never had much of a shot.  It was "Win Iowa and Hope You Somehow Catch Fire," and little more for him.)  As it turned out, she was penniless right after Iowa.  She held on longer than I thought she would back then.

Part of it was just being a contrarian in the betting with my father, who chose Clinton-Rudy.  But I thought it made sense that Obama and McCain would wind up the last two standing.

In fairness, I went back and forth as the caucuses approached.  I'm a little surprised the Huckster didn't catch on after Iowa, but he lost so badly with fiscal conservatives that he was never able to get over the top..

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:27:00 PM EST
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