Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
To see what I'm speaking of see the latest PPP Fl. poll. McCain leads 47-44 but among over 65 he leads 56-33.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 06:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, but that's not abnormal for Florida, and to some extent it simply reflects how Obama shifts demographics.  That 33% is going to be South Florida.  Now that the elderly group is primarily made up of people from the Silent Generation rather than the GIs, the elderly will be more conservative.  Note that we haven't won the elderly since 2000, back when the GIs were still the dominant group in that demographic.

So some of it's Obama, and some of it's a natural shift.

It's a similar pattern all over the country: Obama's winning blowouts -- better than 2-to-1 -- with 18-30 voters, and losing badly, but by a smaller margin, with the elderly.  The problem for McCain is that the Obama campaign seems to have figured out how to get the kids to show up.  And there are a lot more Millennials and late-Xers than there are Silent-Gen'ers.

The problem for Obama is that, while these are great trends in (say) Virginia or Nevada, they're not where you want to be in Florida, because Florida's, of course, the oldest state in the union.

Maybe Hillary improves on that.  Probably at least a bit.  But does she improve on it enough to overcome what I think she'd lose him on I-4?  That's an interesting question.

Undoubtedly they've been polling on it, so they'll know better than I will.

My interest in a Hillary veep slot relates to three states: Florida and Ohio, obviously, and then Arkansas (with potential bleeding into Missouri).  Can a Hillary veep pick flip Arkansas?

Also, can you go with Hillary without damaging Obama's brand in the West?  That's an important question, because the Clintons are not well-liked out there.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Aug 9th, 2008 at 11:48:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that Obama also wants to change US policy on Cuba it might be best to just write off Florida and focus resources elsewhere.  You have to make some hard choices in a tight campaign - otherwise you risk losing by narrow margins in a lot of states.  The VP choice is also about making a choice as to what states you really have to get and which ones you can afford to lose, if need be.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Aug 10th, 2008 at 01:51:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't completely write it off, but I wouldn't bet the house on it either.  As I've said many times, Florida is not the moderate state that people think it is.  It's quite conservative, once you get beyond the stereotypical images of beaches and nasty fruit-flavored mixed drinks.  Outside of the liberal cities, Florida is basically Mississippi without black people.

Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties will go for Obama by comfortable margins.  Leon, Jefferson and Gadsden counties will do the same.  Some areas around Jacksonville and Tampon Bay, too.  Alachua County (University of Florida) will go big for Obama.

But all that is more than balanced out by other areas of the state.  He could win it in a tight, one-point-ish race, but it's just as likely he loses it by four or five points.

Cubans are of less concern to me there, because there's nothing to really lose with them.  The exiles -- and, yes, I'm stereotyping here, but this is my experience -- are a pretty nasty group of people.  Very racist, very bigoted, very economically right-wing.  In other words, they're perfect Republicans on everything except their skin color.

No surprise: The Communists won in Cuba, so the fascists established Havana-North (The City Formerly Known As Miami).

Fortunately, there are many young Cubans now who aren't the nut jobs their parents are, and they seem more receptive to Obama.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 10th, 2008 at 02:05:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Occasional Series