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... rather than a categorical on/off of support. Anytime a group has to "hold its nose" to support a candidate for political stratagery, that will depress turn-out ... and if the coalition was relying on them for volunteer support, depress the numbers of volunteers turning out.

As with Bush in 2000, where Hispanic voters supported Gore more than Bush ... but by smaller margins than recent Republican candidates.

Combine weaker support for McCain from the purportedly "Christian" right, and stronger support for Obama from Hispanics as the Know-Nothing strands in the Republican party become increasingly vocal, and that is a decided shift in Obama's favor.

So far the campaign on both sides has been mostly noise and fury signifying little ... the 24 hour news cycles amplifying the volume of the political ephemera of the day, but in reality most people during summer do not have a lot of time to give over to politics. That's why when you look at the 10 day moving average of the tracking polls, there has been almost no movement at all.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Aug 9th, 2008 at 10:17:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BruceMcF:
So far the campaign on both sides has been mostly noise and fury signifying little ... the 24 hour news cycles amplifying the volume of the political ephemera of the day, but in reality most people during summer do not have a lot of time to give over to politics. That's why when you look at the 10 day moving average of the tracking polls, there has been almost no movement at all.

There has been some movement, with Rasmussen's tracking poll giving McCain a 1 point lead today.  His polls have been consistently slightly more pro-McCain, but its nothing for the Dems to get cocky about.

Those events that have dominated the news cycle and achieved traction with a disinterested electorate should have been big positives for Obama - Berlin, McCain going negative, Paris Hilton's riposte etc.

I'm still not convinced Obama isn't following the Dukakis, Kerry script - when you consider all the other positives in his favour - Iraq, Economy, GOP corruption, big oil backing McCain - something isn't clicking into gear here.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 9th, 2008 at 10:41:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A 1% change in a daily tracking poll smoothed across four days is perhaps a 0.4% change in a daily tracking poll smoothed across ten days ... and often is less change than that.

The trip overseas was not to move numbers immediately ... on current biases in the population, any time the focus is on foreign policy, it should rebound to the benefit of McCain.

And the numbers of people who watch something like the Paris video on the internet and are not already inclined to support Obama must be extremely small.

The test of whether Obama is following the Dukakis/Kerry script will be the convention. If there is a well-rehearsed, hard-hitting assault on the McCain that has appeared in the last month of negative campaigning, we'll know that Obama is operating on a different script.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Aug 9th, 2008 at 10:54:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Anytime a group has to "hold its nose" to support a candidate for political stratagery, that will depress turn-out

any other group, maybe...

not fundies, sadly, they don't take their eyes off the prize.

the only hope is for the extreme left to get as 'devoted' to a progressive prize, with a similarly monomaniacal zeal, and with a similar focus on the supremes.

which is exactly what's happening, amongst the high-info voters, far out to the left of obama, fueled by the internet.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Aug 9th, 2008 at 01:47:48 PM EST
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