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A 1% change in a daily tracking poll smoothed across four days is perhaps a 0.4% change in a daily tracking poll smoothed across ten days ... and often is less change than that.

The trip overseas was not to move numbers immediately ... on current biases in the population, any time the focus is on foreign policy, it should rebound to the benefit of McCain.

And the numbers of people who watch something like the Paris video on the internet and are not already inclined to support Obama must be extremely small.

The test of whether Obama is following the Dukakis/Kerry script will be the convention. If there is a well-rehearsed, hard-hitting assault on the McCain that has appeared in the last month of negative campaigning, we'll know that Obama is operating on a different script.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Aug 9th, 2008 at 10:54:04 AM EST
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