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Update some polls (courtesy of MyDD & Pollster) & note the trendlines:

Michigan:

Pennsylvania:

Nationally:

Note McCain has never been over 44% and Obama has never been under 44%.  Obama is hitting a 4.2% average lead over the summer.  

Now this one is the killer:

As it stands right now for McCain to take Ohio he has to get 66.67% of the Undecided (11.4%) to win.  And he can't win without Ohio.  

And it gets worse:

I'd love to see a recent poll (last one was in July) of Virginia.  If, a big if, this trend holds then McCain has lost this Bush state along with Iowa and New Mexico.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Aug 9th, 2008 at 09:12:31 PM EST
Well, to be fair, I don't think those trends really tell us much.  There just hasn't been a hell of a lot of polling done on those states yet, and because of the fact that numbers bounce around during summer, it's almost impossible to establish a trend.

I love the trends, of course, but just sayin'.

I think Obama clearly has a better shot in Virginia than past Dems.  He's gotten dangerously close (for McCain) to that 50% mark a few times, and it probably looks even a bit better when you only look at the reputable pollsters.

Some of that is a result of Obama -- especially in NoVa (where most Dems are), he's very popular -- and some is a result of Virginia simply becoming more liberal over time (even though Hillary never polled very well here and got blown out in the primary).

He's already hit 50% in Ohio and Michigan a few times.  He's consistently getting up to about 50% in Penn -- and, an aside, at a 9-point lead, his win would be pretty crushing on election day.  So the votes are there.  He just needs to solidify it, and that might simply require a little patience, as more voters start paying closer attention.

But this illustrates my point a tad that I see this as a western election if it's a close contest.  I think Colorado is more likely to decide it than Ohio.

If he wins all of these, it's a landslide, of course, and probably implies that he gets Colorado and Nevada (plus Iowa and New Mexico obviously) out West, probably Indiana in the Midwest, and perhaps North Carolina in the South.

Tight wins in Ohio and Virginia probably imply that he doesn't win Missouri and Florida, but, hey, ya can't have everything.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 10th, 2008 at 11:42:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think these polls and trends tell us Obama is winning but hasn't yet won.  Or, more correct, McCain is losing but hasn't yet lost.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Aug 10th, 2008 at 12:20:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 10th, 2008 at 12:29:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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