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There are a number of differences. Foremost among them is the fact that both the Russian and European economies would break down after less than three months of serious shooting war between Russia and NATO - and everybody on all sides know this. In WWI, everybody thought that the war was going to be quick and profitable, just like all the good little wars they'd had in the 19th century. Well, profitable for the rich, at least.

And then, of course, there's the fact that nobody is particularly interested in seeing their capital illuminated by the soft afterglow of a mushroom cloud...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:21:32 AM EST
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And then, of course, there's the fact that nobody is particularly interested in seeing their capital illuminated by the soft afterglow of a mushroom cloud...

True enough.  But......

There's a continuum of coercive action that one state can take against another that runs from doing nothing to thermonuclear war.

Economic sanctions being the most likely.

A US embargo on Russian oil is a nice toothless measure (because the US imports only a small amount from Russia) that will have tremendous symbolic consequences.

It's when the big boys get into pissing matches that everybody else just gets pissed on.

Even a small, symbolic cut in Russian oil output could have a big impact on prices, because demand is so tight.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:32:16 AM EST
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True. But there's a long shot from a temporary oil shock to WWIII. The former I can live with. The latter... not so much.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:43:22 AM EST
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It doesn't take much of a "temporary oil shock" to send struggling economies into a tailspin.

And in countries like China, Indonesia, and Iran maintaining subsidies for gas will be hard, and without them there's bound to be a lot of civil unrest.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:48:59 AM EST
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