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And then, of course, there's the fact that nobody is particularly interested in seeing their capital illuminated by the soft afterglow of a mushroom cloud...

True enough.  But......

There's a continuum of coercive action that one state can take against another that runs from doing nothing to thermonuclear war.

Economic sanctions being the most likely.

A US embargo on Russian oil is a nice toothless measure (because the US imports only a small amount from Russia) that will have tremendous symbolic consequences.

It's when the big boys get into pissing matches that everybody else just gets pissed on.

Even a small, symbolic cut in Russian oil output could have a big impact on prices, because demand is so tight.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:32:16 AM EST
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True. But there's a long shot from a temporary oil shock to WWIII. The former I can live with. The latter... not so much.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:43:22 AM EST
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It doesn't take much of a "temporary oil shock" to send struggling economies into a tailspin.

And in countries like China, Indonesia, and Iran maintaining subsidies for gas will be hard, and without them there's bound to be a lot of civil unrest.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:48:59 AM EST
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