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But it's hard to escape the notion that Georgia is keen on (i) fighting with Russia, and (ii) dragging the West in that confrontation with Russia;

We have a deal with South Ossetia on how we will deal with crisis situations.

Oh, great. I confess my grasp of European history is not what it should be, but isn't this more or less how WWI got started? A relatively small territorial dispute pulled in other powers through a web of "security arrangements," creating an ever-wider conflict? I do not have a good feeling about where this is going.

We all bleed the same color.

by budr on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 09:52:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, it's a matter of who wants to get their war on. I think WWI really happened because everyone was just about ready for a big fight: treaties provided excuses to have it.

I'm sort of hoping that we're not in the mood for a war right now ...

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 09:56:38 AM EST
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I hope you are right.

We all bleed the same color.

by budr on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:02:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

WWII happened after a long and very obvious build-up, with much diplomatic showmanship, and a couple of previous annexations.

Since Georgia isn't in NATO (yet) the NATO mutual defence clause doesn't kick in, so this is likely to remain a continuing and increasingly nasty local dispute.

It will probably push up the price of oil - which (cynic mode on) is possibly one of the reasons it's happening.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:47:02 AM EST
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Oil prices (none / 0)

If the goal is to jack up prices, it seems not to be working - oil is down to $116 right now...

Apparently, the big pipeline going through Georgia has been down for several days because of a bobm attack ... in Turkey (PKK claiming credit), but this is actually helping prices go down now, because it apeears the curt will be shorter than expected...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:53:58 AM EST
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There are a number of differences. Foremost among them is the fact that both the Russian and European economies would break down after less than three months of serious shooting war between Russia and NATO - and everybody on all sides know this. In WWI, everybody thought that the war was going to be quick and profitable, just like all the good little wars they'd had in the 19th century. Well, profitable for the rich, at least.

And then, of course, there's the fact that nobody is particularly interested in seeing their capital illuminated by the soft afterglow of a mushroom cloud...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:21:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And then, of course, there's the fact that nobody is particularly interested in seeing their capital illuminated by the soft afterglow of a mushroom cloud...

True enough. But......

There's a continuum of coercive action that one state can take against another that runs from doing nothing to thermonuclear war.

Economic sanctions being the most likely.

A US embargo on Russian oil is a nice toothless measure (because the US imports only a small amount from Russia) that will have tremendous symbolic consequences.

It's when the big boys get into pissing matches that everybody else just gets pissed on.

Even a small, symbolic cut in Russian oil output could have a big impact on prices, because demand is so tight.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:32:16 AM EST
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True. But there's a long shot from a temporary oil shock to WWIII. The former I can live with. The latter... not so much.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:43:22 AM EST
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It doesn't take much of a "temporary oil shock" to send struggling economies into a tailspin.

And in countries like China, Indonesia, and Iran maintaining subsidies for gas will be hard, and without them there's bound to be a lot of civil unrest.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:48:59 AM EST
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I don't think NATO is going to step in. For one, how would they? It's very inaccessible territory (and very accessible for the Russians). There is also the matter of Georgia apparently being the party that has chosen to escalate the conflict, by opening a large scale offensive and shelling a city.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 11:05:12 AM EST
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Depends on how the media coverage washes out. If the Georgians manage to paint this as poor little Georgia against the resurgent Russian bear things could get very stupid ... and there's a US Presidential election on where at least some people think war is good for Republicans ...

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 11:07:25 AM EST
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Re: Wannabe NATO member on war path (4.00 / 3)

I think the U.S. does not have the option to step in. Russia can probably overrun Georgia in a matter of days, if it chooses. The U.S. can only get there by air, or through north-east Turkey. Turkey could probably get its military in quickly, but I don't see them doing that.

The media imagery will also depend on Russia's actions. I hope they constrain themselves to South Ossetia.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 11:19:57 AM EST
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WWI was started because the German elite wanted a war with Russia. They used the Austro-Serb crisis to get one. As they well knew, that meant war with France, plus a good chance of getting the Brits in as well. I don't think anyone here is looking for an excuse to start a World War.

by MarekNYC on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 01:15:56 PM EST
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The French elite weren't exactly against a war with Germany, too.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:17:39 PM EST
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They weren't actively seeking one. The Germans were - they felt they needed to destroy Russia sooner rather than later, wanted to get their 'rightful' place in Europe and the world, plus felt it would be a good way of solving domestic tensions. The French weren't reluctant to go to war unlike 1939, but they weren't into starting one on their own. At least that's been the historiographical consensus since the dust settled from the arguments started by Fritz Fischer's Griff nach der Weltmacht (1961, English title "Germany Aims in WWI)

by MarekNYC on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 02:31:00 PM EST
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I am trying (failing) to remember the name of the french union leader that was murdered in the early days of the war, in all probability to prevent him playing a leading role against the war. You can not google keywords you do not remember.

Though elites are hardly acting as one anyway.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 08:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Are you talking about Jaures? Leader of the Socialists. Murdered by a hardline nationalist outraged at his lack of 'patriotism'.

by MarekNYC on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 08:07:36 PM EST
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I did indeed (thank you!), and as circumstances surrounding his death was different then I remembered them, I withdraw what would have been my orginal comment.

(To be less cryptic: As I remembered it, the murderer had more connections with the elite then it turns out. Had my memory been correct one could have argued that this murder was a symptom of french elites wanting the war. But that does not seem to be the case.)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 08:14:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, a very large share of the French wanted the war, and not only the elites. The education system, the army, had been propagandising about a revenge against the Germans since 1870.

Don't forget at the time nationalism had been a left-wing idea ; in 1870 the republicans were in favour of continuing the fight, against the monarchists and bonapartists who had agreed to an armistice.

Many events in France before the war can be understood as part of the war preparations against Germany : for example the Dreyfus affair started as a espionage scandal as Germany had gained access to secret artillery designs.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 08:24:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]