The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
Nouriel Roubini via Angry Bear: If Lehman collapses expect a run on all of the other broker dealers and the collapse of the shadow banking system (September 13, 2008)
It is now clear that we are again - as we were in mid- March at the time of the Bear Stearns collapse - an epsilon away from a generalized run on most of the shadow banking system, especially the other major independent broker dealers (Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs). ... ... ... Thus, a collapse of Lehman would trigger a panic and a potential run on all sort of other broker dealers and also on other distressed financial institutions like banks (WaMu) and insurance companies (AIG) and smaller member of the shadow financial system (distressed and highly leveraged hedge funds, etc.). ... What we are facing now if the beginning of the unraveling and collapse of the entire shadow financial system, a system of institutions (broker dealers, hedge funds, private equity funds, SIVs, conduits, etc.) that look like banks (as they borrow short, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and in illiquid ways) and thus are highly vulnerable to bank like runs; but unlike banks they are not properly regulated and supervised, they don't have access to deposit insurance and don't have access to the lender of last resort support of the central bank (with now only a small group of them having access to the limited and conditional and thus fragile support of the Fed). So no wonder that this shadow banking system is now collapsing. The entire conduits/SIV system has already collapsed with the roll-off of their ABCP financing; next is the collapse of the broker dealers (Bear, Lehman and soon enough the other ones) that rely mostly on unstable overnight repos and other very short term funding for their financing; next will be hundreds of poorly managed hedge funds that will face a tsunami of redemptions; and finally runs on money market funds that are not supported by a large financial institutions or other smaller member of the shadow banking system as well as highly leveraged and distressed private equity funds cannot be ruled out either. ...
...
... Thus, a collapse of Lehman would trigger a panic and a potential run on all sort of other broker dealers and also on other distressed financial institutions like banks (WaMu) and insurance companies (AIG) and smaller member of the shadow financial system (distressed and highly leveraged hedge funds, etc.).
What we are facing now if the beginning of the unraveling and collapse of the entire shadow financial system, a system of institutions (broker dealers, hedge funds, private equity funds, SIVs, conduits, etc.) that look like banks (as they borrow short, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and in illiquid ways) and thus are highly vulnerable to bank like runs; but unlike banks they are not properly regulated and supervised, they don't have access to deposit insurance and don't have access to the lender of last resort support of the central bank (with now only a small group of them having access to the limited and conditional and thus fragile support of the Fed). So no wonder that this shadow banking system is now collapsing. The entire conduits/SIV system has already collapsed with the roll-off of their ABCP financing; next is the collapse of the broker dealers (Bear, Lehman and soon enough the other ones) that rely mostly on unstable overnight repos and other very short term funding for their financing; next will be hundreds of poorly managed hedge funds that will face a tsunami of redemptions; and finally runs on money market funds that are not supported by a large financial institutions or other smaller member of the shadow banking system as well as highly leveraged and distressed private equity funds cannot be ruled out either.
by gmoke - Aug 14 4 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 12 8 comments
by Oui - Aug 12 28 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 1 20 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 3 4 comments
by Oui - Jul 12 52 comments
by gmoke - Aug 1
by gmoke - Jul 31 3 comments
by Oui - Aug 176 comments
by Oui - Aug 166 comments
by Oui - Aug 151 comment
by gmoke - Aug 144 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 128 comments
by Oui - Aug 1228 comments
by Oui - Aug 944 comments
by Oui - Aug 716 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 34 comments
by Oui - Aug 31 comment
by Oui - Aug 211 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 120 comments
by gmoke - Jul 313 comments
by Oui - Jul 3016 comments
by Oui - Jul 30
by Oui - Jul 261 comment
by Oui - Jul 253 comments
by Oui - Jul 2310 comments
by Oui - Jul 1971 comments