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On your second point, realclearpolitics has Obama ahead by 2%, and Democrats ahead by 6% in the congressional polls - not much of a difference given that McCain still benefits from some independent support because of his "maverick" image and war record. Given how damaged the Republican brand is, that's an extraordinarily bad performance by the Dems and shows that race isn't maybe as big a factor as we might think. In fact the congressional job approval (21% approve, 71%disapprove) is even worse than President Bush's (32% approve, 65% disapprove).
People don't see the Dem Congress majority as having made a difference or have to have given effective leadership. People think the country is moving in the wrong direction by 75% to 20% and that has gotten steadily worse despite the Dems getting a majority in 2006.
The DEMs are still just opposing the extremes of neo-conservatism without projecting a radically different ideology of their own. Vote McCain for war without gain
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