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but not particularly convincing. The turkey metaphor is a rhetorical trick, the mathematical appendix is incoherent, and there's no mention of Extreme Value Theory, which is surprising in an article discussing the supposed impossibility of modelling extremes.

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$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
by martingale on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:03:48 AM EST
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