The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
A Simple Proof Of Unpredictability In The Fourth Quadrant I show elsewhere that if you don't know what a "typical" event is, fractal power laws are the most effective way to discuss the extremes mathematically. It does not mean that the real world generator is actually a power law--it means you don't understand the structure of the external events it delivers and need a tool of analysis so you do not become a turkey. Also, fractals simplify the mathematical discussions because all you need is play with one parameter (I call it "alpha") and it increases or decreases the role of the rare event in the total properties.
I show elsewhere that if you don't know what a "typical" event is, fractal power laws are the most effective way to discuss the extremes mathematically. It does not mean that the real world generator is actually a power law--it means you don't understand the structure of the external events it delivers and need a tool of analysis so you do not become a turkey. Also, fractals simplify the mathematical discussions because all you need is play with one parameter (I call it "alpha") and it increases or decreases the role of the rare event in the total properties.
For instance, if you move alpha from 2.3 to 2 in the publishing business, the sales of books in excess of 1 million copies triple! Before meeting Benoit Mandelbrot, I used to play with combinations of scenarios with series of probabilities and series of payoffs filling spreadsheets with clumsy simulations; learning to use fractals made such analyses immediate. Now all I do is change the alpha and see what's going on.
Now the problem: Parametrizing a power law lends itself to monstrous estimation errors (I said that heavy tails have horrible inverse problems). Small changes in the "alpha" main parameter used by power laws leads to monstrously large effects in the tails. Monstrous.
And we don't observe the "alpha. Figure 5 shows more than 40 thousand computations of the tail exponent "alpha" from different samples of different economic variables (data for which it is impossible to refute fractal power laws). We clearly have problems figuring out what the "alpha" is: our results are marred with errors. Clearly the mean absolute error is in excess of 1 (i.e. between alpha=2 and alpha=3). Numerous papers in econophysics found an "average" alpha between 2 and 3--but if you process the >20 million pieces of data analyzed in the literature, you find that the variations between single variables are extremely significant.
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 24 3 comments
by Oui - Jan 20 52 comments
by Oui - Jan 23 17 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 14 53 comments
by gmoke - Jan 22 2 comments
by Oui - Jan 10 61 comments
by Oui - Jan 21 10 comments
by IdiotSavant - Jan 15 20 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 243 comments
by gmoke - Jan 24
by Oui - Jan 2317 comments
by gmoke - Jan 222 comments
by Oui - Jan 2110 comments
by Oui - Jan 2052 comments
by Oui - Jan 2011 comments
by Oui - Jan 172 comments
by Oui - Jan 1610 comments
by gmoke - Jan 16
by IdiotSavant - Jan 1520 comments
by Oui - Jan 1447 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 1453 comments
by Oui - Jan 1389 comments
by Oui - Jan 1177 comments
by Oui - Jan 1061 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 877 comments
by Oui - Jan 772 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 710 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 668 comments