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I, honestly, don't think Paulson's going to get this.  The battle lines are being drawn, and the more I read, the less convinced I am that he's even going to be able to rally the Republicans behind it.  The noises coming from people like Shelby have to be disturbing to the Bushies.

I don't see the Bushies getting a lot of help from the financial "experts".  The econ blogs, many of which have inroads with the traditional finance press, have all universally denounced this.  The economists on the left and center have all, or will all, denounce it and do the talk shows (Krugman, Ritholtz, etc).

I think you're going to see consensus around a couple of the points in Obama's proposal (equity share, home-loan modifications, etc), along with a few other things tossed in (perhaps Pelosi's stimulus package, etc).

Compensation reform is probably not going anywhere for now, but I wouldn't rule it out, and if nothing else it serves as a weapon for our side in order to get more of other things.

Hopefully McCain will do us all a favor and come out supporting Paulson.  The Obama campaign also needs to hit hard on Gramm, UBS and McCain when Paulson's official plan is finally released.  That should be easy enough to see coming.

For now, I'm cautiously optimistic and basically satisfied with the response.  But, again (as always), we'll see what happens if the Blue Dogs try to kneecap us.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 04:19:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok so the markets rallied on the back of rumours that this was going to happen. if various politicians decide this just isn't going to happen will we see further failure on Monday?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 04:50:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Depends.  What I outlined above on what I think is likely to happen, give or take a bit here and there, will probably leave the markets a disappointed, since they'd love for us to give away the store, but it shouldn't have any giant negative effect.

If, however, nothing happens, then we're back to where we were on Tuesday, and I think the downward trend will continue.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 05:03:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe not on monday, but the longer the legislation is delayed the more likely a crash is.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 05:19:12 PM EST
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Unless a fairly serious taxation and re-regulation is imposed anything that is done will only stave off, and probably acerbate, the problems.

Right now, I don't see any Serious People© gunning for either.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 04:58:46 PM EST
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Compensation reform should be an excuse to introduce high marginal rates of income and wealth taxes - they work better than a cap on compensation.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 05:17:33 PM EST
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