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Similar rebukes have happened in the past, which didn't prevent August 2008. The endgame for Saak is close, who knows what he's going to do now.
by Sargon on Wed Jan 28th, 2009 at 01:11:06 PM EST
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Back then he had the pretty explicit support of the Americans. The Bushistas told Georgia in almost so many words that they would back them up. Notwithstanding the fact that they later dropped those promises like a hot brick (and the fact that any moron could see that they'd have to do so, on account of geography if nothing else).

If Obama takes a belligerent line with the Russians and actively tries to stir up trouble in Central Asia, I don't think any amount of EU arm-twisting can convince Saak not to play along.

OTOH, if the Americans stay out (or, even better, pursue sane policies for the region), I'd guess that Saak will be quietly stepped down. Or not so quietly, depending on the mood in Georgia at the time...

He may be mad as a hatter, but he's already been mauled by the Bear once - without American support, I really don't think that he wants a re-match.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jan 28th, 2009 at 02:54:47 PM EST
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