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[To] simulate the effects of the protoypical package on GDP. We use multipliers that we feel represent a consensus of a broad range of economists and professional forecasters. Our particular multipliers for an increase in governement purchases of 1% of GDP and a decrease in taxes of 1% of GDP are given in Appendix 1. They are broadly similar to those implied by the Federal Reserve's FR/US model and the models of leading private forecasters, such as Macroeconomic Advisers. The final step is to take the effect on GDP and translate it into job creation. Not all of the increased output reflects increased employment [ya think its captured in securities volume? jeezus.] : some comes from increases in hours of work among employed workers and some comes from higher productivity [bingo]. We therefore use the relatively conservative rule of thumb [heuristic] that a 1 percent increase in GDP corresponds to an increase in employment of approximately 1 million jobs, or about three-quarters of a percent. This has been the rough correspondence over history and matches the FRB/US model reasonably well. [emphasis added]
The final step is to take the effect on GDP and translate it into job creation. Not all of the increased output reflects increased employment [ya think its captured in securities volume? jeezus.] : some comes from increases in hours of work among employed workers and some comes from higher productivity [bingo]. We therefore use the relatively conservative rule of thumb [heuristic] that a 1 percent increase in GDP corresponds to an increase in employment of approximately 1 million jobs, or about three-quarters of a percent. This has been the rough correspondence over history and matches the FRB/US model reasonably well. [emphasis added]
Forecast job creation is overwhelmingly Retail and Leisure and Hospitality sectors. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
Forecast job creation is overwhelmingly Retail and Leisure and Hospitality sectors.
Vegas needs money anyway, and screw Branson, 'cause Missouri didn't vote for us. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
To the point about retail, leisure, etc, while I think it's a very fair point that the stimulus package does not -- at least not yet (as you know, it may look completely different once Congress has its way with the bill, Congress being Congress) -- emphasize manufacturing and assorted green and tech jobs enough, some of the job creation in retail and other areas is probably anticipation of basically making up lost ground, given that a lot of retailers are going under and taking the jobs with them.
Still, I want to see more emphasis on trains for urban areas and greener automobiles for rural areas. If I remember correctly, Amtrak, for example, has about $10bn in projects ready to go, but the package only calls for filling $4bn or $6bn of the hole. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
It seems if you're going to be doing some serious re-engineering, it would be useful to know where the money is and where it's going.
Or am I being naive and not serious enough here?
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