"The Job impact of The American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan" (9 Jan 2009) and the mysterious "multiplier" quotient.

[To] simulate the effects of the protoypical package on GDP. We use multipliers that we feel represent a consensus of a broad range of economists and professional forecasters. Our particular multipliers for an increase in governement purchases of 1% of GDP and a decrease in taxes of 1% of GDP are given in Appendix 1. They are broadly similar to those implied by the Federal Reserve's FR/US model and the models of leading private forecasters, such as Macroeconomic Advisers.

The final step is to take the effect on GDP and translate it into job creation. Not all of the increased output reflects increased employment [ya think its captured in securities volume? jeezus.] : some comes from increases in hours of work among employed workers and some comes from higher productivity [bingo]. We therefore use the relatively conservative rule of thumb [heuristic] that a 1 percent increase in GDP corresponds to an increase in employment of approximately 1 million jobs, or about three-quarters of a percent. This has been the rough correspondence over history and matches the FRB/US model reasonably well.  [emphasis added]

Forecast job creation is overwhelmingly Retail and Leisure and Hospitality sectors.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.