I found an article (in Hungarian) about a simulation done in 2007 of a repeat of the 1977 quake, which paints an even more scary scenario. Due to the deterioration of the communism-era concrete apartment towers (plattenbau), the prediction for a quake at 21h is 450,000 dead, 30(0?),000 injured, 95,000 trapped in ruins. Worse, 25 of the 57 hospitals is expected to collapse. The conductors of the study emphasized that they did not even consider the collapse of the dam wall of an estuary upriver.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}