I think it's much more likely they will adopt the Norwegian Krone in some way and stay in EFTA alongside Norway.

Now that the new Icelandic government is almost exactly the same Red/Green complexion as the Norwegian one, we are seeing Norwegians slipping into Iceland like ferrets down a drainpipe to help them out.

The economies are so similar - energy, maritime products and skills, high tech IP - that the synergies are too great to ignore.

Attention has certainly swung to the Arctic recently - in particular with a view to energy security. Note both the EU and US speakers at the recent

Arctic Frontiers

gig in Tromsø, Norway.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson