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Read Nate Silver on the alleged filibuster threat - something which he thinks is almost non-existent in the foreseeable future because too many Senate Republicans have no choice but to work with the Obama Administration if they are to have any influence at all, and any chance of re-election in their now frequently Democratic leaning states.

If Obama appoints Judd Greg as Commerce Secretary, the likely outcome is another Obama leaning replacement Senator from New Hampshire giving a filibuster proof majority in all but name.  Democrats are also well placed to increase their majority in 2010, although, as they say, 2 years is a long time in politics.

Obama's majority in the house is also sufficient to overcome blue dog resistance and I do not doubt Obama's communication skills in being able to change the dominant narrative from the Reaganite "Government is the problem" to the progressive Government is the solution.

Obama's biggest problem is managing the decline in the USA's position as the world's sole Superpower and the hyperventilating theatrics this will inspire in the right wing.  If the Economy is still in trouble in 3/4 years time, Obama is in big trouble, and may take the fall for problems he never created.

However if he can stabilise the economy - even at a much lower rate of growth - create jobs, improve healthcare and deliver on most of his promises he should be a shoo-in for 2012.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Feb 1st, 2009 at 10:01:20 AM EST
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