Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
Obama is the master of strategy and timing.  After the stimulus plan is activated, he will "discover" that the public finances are actually in much worse shape than he ever realised - requiring major sacrifices from all - excepting only the "middle classes" who have suffered a lot already.  Bank bail-outs of the big 6 banks will go, huge cuts in military spending, reductions in foreign "aid" to Israel et al.

The right does not have a monopoly on shock doctrine tactics.  In the short term the impact on the stock market will be catastrophic, "confidence" will suffer, but if he does it quickly enough people will still associate it with the aftermath of the Bush years.

He then has three years to rebuild the economy on a much more sustainable base... if he is not assassinated first

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jan 31st, 2009 at 02:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank, here's a time when I hope with all my heart you're right.
Do you think the republican senate will filibuster the package, or is it a bluff?
If they do, --

Obama needs a story line to detoxify the centrally managed (spelled "socialistic") element of a mixed economy, and get people fired up, for ghange that's more than an economic emergency rescue. Without the unifying narrative,--the theater part of the equation-- strategy, even shock strategy could lead to a deeply authoritarian shift.

He also needs fewer blue-dog dems, and a veto-proof senate.

Dear Santa, --

Love,

 Bartak

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sun Feb 1st, 2009 at 02:21:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Read Nate Silver on the alleged filibuster threat - something which he thinks is almost non-existent in the foreseeable future because too many Senate Republicans have no choice but to work with the Obama Administration if they are to have any influence at all, and any chance of re-election in their now frequently Democratic leaning states.

If Obama appoints Judd Greg as Commerce Secretary, the likely outcome is another Obama leaning replacement Senator from New Hampshire giving a filibuster proof majority in all but name.  Democrats are also well placed to increase their majority in 2010, although, as they say, 2 years is a long time in politics.

Obama's majority in the house is also sufficient to overcome blue dog resistance and I do not doubt Obama's communication skills in being able to change the dominant narrative from the Reaganite "Government is the problem" to the progressive Government is the solution.

Obama's biggest problem is managing the decline in the USA's position as the world's sole Superpower and the hyperventilating theatrics this will inspire in the right wing.  If the Economy is still in trouble in 3/4 years time, Obama is in big trouble, and may take the fall for problems he never created.

However if he can stabilise the economy - even at a much lower rate of growth - create jobs, improve healthcare and deliver on most of his promises he should be a shoo-in for 2012.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Feb 1st, 2009 at 10:01:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series