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The US tax code strongly encouraged me to buy a house. But I also worried that, were real estate values to continue to rise, so would most rents, and I did not want to have to move often. Best decision I ever made.
But the last real estate bubble in Japan burst 20 years ago. It is hard to know if real estate would make sense as an investment, even if you knew you wanted to stay in Japan for another ten to twenty years. If your annual rent is over 75% of what a mortgage payment would be and you were confident you had long term employment, ten years or so, it might make sense.
If long hours at your job are a problem, anything that makes your life easier makes sense. Do it yourself home maintenance probably doesn't qualify there. :-) But saving so that you have options does. Having two year's worth of income saved would leave you more comfortable changing locations, either within Japan or elsewhere. You might also be able to find a situation that is less demanding of your time, which could allow you to invest more in personal abilities. You could even afford to take off for a year and travel.
In Japan, the problem with the economy for the last 20 years seems to have tilted more to deflation than to inflation. So long as that continues, your savings are appreciating, even if you are not getting much, if any, return on investment. But you might want to diversify in terms of currency exposure. Study the variation of the Yen vs. currencies of countries you might consider investing in, say Brazil, India, the EU and wait until the yen is strong with respect to the target market and buy several somethings that is likely to be there in another ten years in each target economy.
In sum, it is better to have savings, even if they might be eroded in value, than to have none, especially in a crisis. If diversified, the chance that all of your savings will be worthless is far less than the possibility that they may be very important to you. It may be that a time will come again when economies seem predictable and stable. That will be a much better opportunity if you have savings than if you don't. But I would spend a portion of that surplus on yourself, on vacations, personal conveniences and smaller pleasures as well. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
classic last words of long-term ex-pats in Japan. (^_-) La Chine dorme. Laisse la dormir. Quand la Chine s'éveillera, le monde tremblera.
That's not really the thing, I'm just feeling now that I'm kind of tired with living here for the moment, though prospects elsewhere don't look very good. My desire to leave Japan is more emotional than rational.
But I suppose that was one of the spurs to writing this diary. I am at a job that may well be my lifetime earnings peak, and I don't hate it. I don't like it very much either, though, and it's never going to get any better nor will the pay ever rise. It may also collapse on its own in the next year or two. But, should I return to the US, I may well enjoy a year or two of unemployment/marginal employment before I get a job half as livable as this. That is a path with risks and rewards all its own, and my employment situation may not be nearly as dire as I fear. However, there is a strong chance that moving back like that would put me in the situation of reaching 40 without a dime in the bank.
So, I get to thinking about it, and really can't make up my mind about how much that really matters. Obviously my decision about staying or going depends on many things much more personal and better known that the fate of the global capitalist system. However, those are things I need to figure out on my own. ET is a wonderful place for talking about doom and all, and so I posted the diary with that as the main angle.
And given the discussion provoked, and the many comments on the diary, it seems to have been a good choice. Thanks all for contributing, and for giving me an idea for a diary on a related topic, regarding the intersection of the personal and the political in terms of the larger macro-economic forces at work in the world today.
The 5-year rolling window of preparedness also seems to be part of this here consensus. But the conventional wisdom still operates on much longer time frames - the 40-year mortgage, the single lifetime career (and its associated scourge, ageism)... The only thing that isn't cultural and which doesn't fit in the 5-year frame is the 20 years it takes for one's children to reach adulthood. En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
But long-term business as usual contradicts the premise of your diary... En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
However, as much as they like foreigners now, I wonder how that would change, or not, should things turn ugly. I also wonder what the heck I'd end up doing, once teaching English/teaching in English is no longer a viable option.
So yeah, I guess doom anxieties play a bit of role in this decision as well, though as with savings, I can't really make up my mind.
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