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Hudson goes on to describe his best estimate of the shape of the "Homeowner Rescue Plan":
Here's the patter talk you can expect, with the usual Orwellian euphemisms. The "rescue the homeowners" PPP, a veritable Savior Bank, will go to a family strapped by its home mortgage debt and feeling more and more desperate as the price of its major asset plummets deep into Negative Equity territory. An offer will be made: "We've got a deal to save you. We'll renegotiate your mortgage down to $250,000, the current market price, and we'll also lower your interest rate to just 5.50 per cent. This will cut your monthly debt charges by nearly two thirds. You will escape from negative equity, and you can afford to stay in your home."

The family probably will say, "Great."

But they will have to make a concession. That's where the new public/private partnership makes its killing. Its Savior Bank, funded with private money that is to take the "risk" (and also the rewards) will say to the family that agrees to renegotiate its mortgage: "Now that the government has taken a loss while we've let you stay in your home, we need to recover the money that's been lost. So when the time comes for you to sell, or to renegotiate your mortgage, our Savior Bank will receive the capital gain up to the original amount written off. If we've made you whole, we want to be made whole too."

In other words, if the homeowner sells the property for $400,000, the Savior Bank will get $150,000 of the capital gain. If the property sells for $500,000, the bank will get $250,000. And if it sells for more, thanks to some new clone of Alan Greenspan acting as bubblemeister, the capital gain will be split in some way. If the split is 50/50, then if the home sells for $600,000, the owner at that time will split the $100,000 further capital gain with the Savior Bank. The Savior Bank will thus make much more through its share of capital gains than it extracts in interest!

This plan will be even better for Wall Street than the Greenspan bubble was! Last time around, it was the middle class that got the gains. To be sure, it really was the bank that got the gains, because mortgage interest charges absorbed the entire rental value. But at least homeowners had a chance at the free ride, if they didn't squander their money in refinancing their mortgages. And many did use their homes "like a piggy bank" to support their living standards.

But this time around, Wall Street is not obliged to make its money by making middle class homeowners rich. Debt-strapped homeowners are willing to settle merely for a plan that leaves them in their homes! It can get for itself the capital gains that have been the driving force of U.S. "wealth creation," Alan Greenspan bubble-style.

About the only way this plan could be described as fair is if home values continued to decline and stayed down for 30 years.  The truly sad thing is that most underwater home owners would think they were getting a deal.

I was unimpressed with Geithner from what I have seen of him in interview.  His body language denoted uncertainty and dishonesty.  He seems to me better suited to be the brilliant young point man for some leader with gravitas than to be the person who is supposed to inspire confidence.  If he can sell this plan I will have to reclassify him as The Pied Piper of Wall Street, charming all of the homeowner rats into following him to their doom.  Instead of having some equity from their homes when it comes time to retire, that will belong to the bank.  Hope they are prepared to live on Social Security.  Sure glad I sold when I did.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Feb 14th, 2009 at 12:54:33 AM EST
Which part of "jingle mail" does this plan suppose that underwater home "owners" will fail to understand?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 14th, 2009 at 11:19:47 AM EST
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See above: "The poor are honest."  Many of the ones who should walk away won't.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Feb 14th, 2009 at 12:32:12 PM EST
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Many say that, in real terms, housing will never ever again reach the prices it reached in that bubble. If there is inflation, they might.

But remember that the people who  need such rescheduling should never have bought such expensive houses in the first place. Thye are to blame too.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Feb 14th, 2009 at 11:31:03 AM EST
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That is why I chose 30 years.  The real scandal is that the very banks that created the mess may well be cast as "Savior banks" and be further enriched.  I don't have objections to savior banks getting some of the equity as an incentive, nor  for the homeowners losing some of their equity.  But I feel that the government should get more than the banks or the homeowners.  Use it as security for future Social Security and Medicare obligations.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Feb 14th, 2009 at 12:37:28 PM EST
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