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No, propagandists need simple numbers. Headline writers need simple numbers. People need to understand the issues.

A qualitative description would be considerably more useful to most people than focusing on a handful of numbers that hide all the details and act merely to obscure the truth.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Feb 26th, 2009 at 08:30:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Should we have a debate on the theory of index numbers?
There is a substantial body of economic analysis concerning the construction of index numbers, desirable properties of index numbers and the relationship between index numbers and economic theory.


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 26th, 2009 at 08:44:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, please?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Feb 26th, 2009 at 08:45:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is nonsense?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 26th, 2009 at 09:07:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Let me start with this:
Basically I've managed to convince myself that there isn't a sensible mathematical definition of "real GDP" or the "price level" (also known as "GDP deflator"). Which means you can talk about nominal GDP and about growth rates and inflation rates, but you cannot really compare real GDP across countries or across  time. And it casts serious doubts on PPP. And this is in principle, without even going into the practical difficulties of gathering real data, or the fishiness of arbitrary "baskets of goods", "hedonic pricing", and other assorted suspicious stuffnonsense.

I have hinted at it here and here. There's also Keynes:

That the units, in terms of which economists commonly work, are unsatisfactory can be illustrated by the concepts of the national dividend, the stock of real capital and the general price-level:

...

Thirdly, the well-known, but unavoidable, element of vagueness which admittedly attends the concept of the general price-level makes this term very unsatisfactory for the purposes of causal analysis, which ought to be exact.

Nevertheless these difficulties are rightly regarded as 'conundrums'. They are 'purely theoretical' in the sense that they never perplex, or indeed enter in any way into, business decisions and have no relevance to the causal sequence of economic events, which are clear-cut and determinate in spite of the quantitative indeterminacy of these concepts. It is natural, therefore, to conclude that they not only lack precision but are unnecessary. Obviously our quantitative analysis must be expressed without using any quantitatively vague expressions. And, indeed, as soon as one makes the attempt, it becomes clear, as I hope to show, that one can get on much better without them.

The fact that two incommensurable collections of miscellaneous objects cannot in themselves provide the material for quantitative analysis need not, of course, prevent us from making approximate statistical comparisons, depending on some broad element of judgement rather than of strict calculation, which may possess significance and validity within certain limits.

But the proper place for such things as net real output and the general level of prices lies within the field of historical and statistical description, and their purpose should be to satisfy historical or social curiosity, a purpose for which perfect precision--such as our causal analysis requires, whether or not our knowledge of the actual values of the relevant quantities is complete or exact--is neither usual nor necessary. To say that net output to-day is greater, but the price-level lower, than ten years ago or one year ago, is a proposition of a similar character to the statement that Queen Victoria was a better Queen but not a happier woman than Queen Elizabeth--a proposition not without meaning and not without interest, but unsuitable material for the differential calculus. Our precision will be a mock precision if we try to use such partly vague and non-quantitative concepts as the basis of our quantitative analysis.

-- John M. Keynes in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

(my emphasis)

The "general price level" is the "GDP deflator".

I don't know whether Keynes was thinking about the mathematical reasons I'm thinking about, but it sounds like he knew this stuff was nonsense already.

BruceMcF:

Keynes' basic argument for working in terms of nominal amounts and employment was that the ability of a person to work as unskilled labor if need be provided a connection between various specialized and more restricted skilled labor markets in terms of their renumeration as a multiple of the wage of unskilled labor, providing a quantity that could be aggregated with greater justification than the vector of the amount produced of each and every different type of final product for sale in the economy.
And now for the IM:
Colman: Is the underlying model even faintly relevant to the real world here?
Migeru: maybe what I'm doing is reducing GDP to absurdity
Colman: That's my immediate thought. ... Not that it needs much help.
Migeru: hmm. It is king of policy right now. It might be absurd but that matters little. The thing is if REAL GDP is not a state function then you CANNOT compare it across countries or across times.
Colman: Well, that's obvious to start with. In fact, most of these sumamry statistics are incomparable.
Migeru: not obvious to economic policy makers. ... So in economics what you can measure is meaningless and hwat is meaningful is unmeasurable?
Colman: I don't know about that - though it may be true - but what is measured is not comparable. Unemployment, gdp, military spend, research spending, health spending etc.
...
Migeru: apparently keynes wanted to use only nominal GDP but I don't know why other than some qualitative statements
Colman: Because real GDP is made up? Measurement errors on top of measurement errors on top of biases. Inflation is affected by political and technical choices in what is measured, GDP is "corrected" for various factors - hedonistic pricing among them, and so on.
Migeru: well, that just makes matters even worse
Colman: Absurd on the face of it.
Migeru: my argument doesn't involve arbitrary choices of baskets, or hedonic pricing or anything like that
Colman: I know.
Migeru: so that, plus practical issues of measurement just make matters worse.
Colman: GDP is, on many levels, a shit measure of anything. That it has appalling technical problems is hardly surprising.
Migeru: but it doesn't even make mathematical sense in a perfect world.
Colman: Frankly, I think it harks back to a time when it was the best they could do. GDP is easy to measure. Or approximate. From tax records.
Migere: sure, what else is the government going to use for policy? (by way of quantitative information)
Colman: The problem is that the number is, again, only slightly meaningful. So that, all things being equal (hah!) and with a sensible choice of basket, real GDP growth tells you that your economy is producing wealth faster than it was. ... Colman: But comparing 3% for one country vs 5% for another doesn't make much sense. And comparing GDP/head is meaningless. Especially since the policy discussions generally take place on the basis of provisional figures which are then revised. And US figures (broadly) are revised down, while European figures are (broadly) revised up.
Migeru: so it's all bullshit.
Colman: The way it is used is bullshit. Like unemployment.
Migeru: I'm beginning to think economics really is not at all a quantitative subject
Colman: Well, it has severe measurement problems. Rather like doing physics with only a metre stick, and without standardised metre sticks in different countries.
Migeru: no, I think it's not rather like doing physics. At all. Or maybe it's like Aristotelian physics: with entirely the wrong concepts.
(A comment to Minor errors by Colman on November 15th, 2007.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 26th, 2009 at 09:29:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To say that net output to-day is greater, but the price-level lower, than ten years ago or one year ago, is a proposition of a similar character to

This is simply not true. Real GDP change for existing goods is usually measured by amount. If I produce today 1000 screws and nexy year 1050, I have 5% real GDP growth. The price of a single screw may change, that is the price change.

As well, that Basically I've managed to convince myself that there isn't a sensible mathematical definition of "real GDP" or the "price level" (also known as "GDP deflator")
is not a great intellectual achievment. GDP isn't well defined in infinitesimal small time intervals, or at least it will wiggle extremely around - e.g. on the day scale, GDP at night is much lower than in the morning. Therefore usually the smalles time unit in which GDP is published are months. This doesn't mean that you can't reasonably parametrise real GDP growth with analytical functions to make an economic theory.

"price level" (also known as "GDP deflator")
Be careful! You may mean the right thing, but many people don't get immediately, that CPI and GDP deflator aren't the same. Terms of trade shocks happen in the real world, even to quite big players.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Feb 26th, 2009 at 09:02:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Real GDP change for existing goods is usually measured by amount.

But the basket of goods and services produced by an economy changes over time. And it is not necessarily meaningful to compare screws with ball bearings, or integrated circuits with railroad cars. So as a macroeconomic figure, real GDP does not necessarily make sense, even when defined in terms of real goods and services.

This doesn't mean that you can't reasonably parametrise real GDP growth with analytical functions to make an economic theory.

Who promised you that it's an analytical function? For that matter, who promised you that it's a function at all of the variables it's usually expressed in terms of?

(You can always make it a function by parametrising it in time, but as Keynes notes in the paragraphs above, that's not terribly interesting in terms of predictive power...)

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 03:00:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
real GDP does not necessarily make sense

Yes, but real GDP growth makes a sense, as the portion of fundamentally different products is rather small. Such new products are than at some point pegged in their relation to other products by their nominal value. Comparing the absolute value of GDP of two countries is indeed not that much helpful.

Of course there is some arbitraryness in real GDP, as one has to define the hedonistic factor. Is a computer with double the CPU power and disk space double as good as the other computer?
But I do think that often such questions can be answered in a reasonable way.

Of course without an underlying theory a parametrisation has no (or very little, when you make the theory of 'some smoothness') predictive power. That is true for easy to define state variables, too.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 10:43:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Martin:
As well, that Basically I've managed to convince myself that there isn't a sensible mathematical definition of "real GDP" or the "price level" (also known as "GDP deflator")
is not a great intellectual achievment. GDP isn't well defined in infinitesimal small time intervals, or at least it will wiggle extremely around - e.g. on the day scale, GDP at night is much lower than in the morning. Therefore usually the smalles time unit in which GDP is published are months. This doesn't mean that you can't reasonably parametrise real GDP growth with analytical functions to make an economic theory.
The point is that as long as you have more than one product in your economy the (real gdp growth rate) and (inflation rate) are inexact differentials so they are path-dependent. Nominal gdp change is an exact differential.

If you have two collections of prices and volumes that are exactly the same 10 years apart, you have the same (nominal gdp change) but if the evolution of the economy took two sufficiently disparate paths over those 10 years you could have two very different (real gdp change) and (inflation).

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 03:49:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you have two collections of prices and volumes that are exactly the same 10 years apart, you have the same (nominal gdp change) but if the evolution of the economy took two sufficiently disparate paths over those 10 years you could have two very different (real gdp change) and (inflation).

Well, the change is still simply the difference. The accumulated real GDP can be different. But why would that mean that real GDP isn't properly defined. Your link to thermodynamic; in thermodynamics the values that are path dependent are as well properly defined. In the real world, the economy has taken one path.

And it is very clear, that Zimbabwe isn't the richest country in the world, despite for sure by far the largest nominal increase in GDP.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 10:33:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All I'm saying is that nominal GDP is a state quantity but that real GDP change is a path quantity (and so is inflation). Maybe this is obvious, to you, but it wasn't to me, especially not from reading about economics.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 10:40:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it wasn't clear to me.

But I don't see the relation with

there isn't a sensible mathematical definition of "real GDP" or the "price level"

from that observation.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 10:45:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can't get "real GDP" from just enumerating the goods and services traded and their prices at any one time. Thus, "real GDP" is not comparable across time or across countries.

Moreover, you can't get "real GDP change" from just enumerating the goods and services traded and their prices at the initial and final times, if these are far away enough to have encompass at least one business cycle.

So you have to fall back on "real GDP change" as a feature of a history of economic development.

By there isn't a sensible mathematical definition of "real GDP" or the "price level" I mean you can't meaningfully compare the "real GDP" or the "price level" between two points.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 10:56:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Therefore you usually keep one variable fixed. E.g. the real GDP in prices of 2000. Or the inflation on this basket of products. This are both reasonable quantities.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sat Feb 28th, 2009 at 09:35:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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