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Migeru:
So, what was the .com bubble inflated with? Cash that people happened to have lying around?

There are restrictions on buying stock on margin, of course. So yes, lots of people - including a lot of very shrewd business people allowed common sense to be temporarily overtaken by the Madness of Crowds.

Migeru:

The (US) economy was going into recession as a result of the .com bubble bursting

Can you back up that statement? I just saw the bubble as a major pimple on the arse of the economy. It didn't really affect the real economy at all IMHO....

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 09:23:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ChrisCook:

Migeru:

The (US) economy was going into recession as a result of the .com bubble bursting

Can you back up that statement?

It appears that Martin Wolf, Ben Bernanke, and ETers Jerome and Martin all agree on that point in the discussion to my Musings on the savings-glut theory diary of October 17th, 2008.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 09:29:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How can I argue against such a consensus? :-)

Still worth kicking the point around though.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 09:37:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ChrisCook:
How can I argue against such a consensus?
Like you did already, presumably...

ChrisCook:

But to come back to the point of the Diary, Wolf's assumption is that in some way the "Savings Glut" is pre-existing money which has been lent to unwise property purchasers/ investors.

The chain of causality is the other way around.

Secured loans were made to by credit institutions to assist in property purchases, and due to the deficit nature of the money supply these interest-bearing loans created new money which inflated the bubble still further.

The direct cause of asset price inflation is the deficit basis of money created as debt

A very large part of this new money which was instantaneously deposited back into the system was thereupon used by American consumers to buy Chinese etc goods, and this was then saved, by being deposited in the banking system somewhere in the world.

The Bubble caused the Savings Glut: the Savings Glut did not cause the Bubble.

But there you were addressing the claim that the Chinese "savings glut" had a deflationary impact on the US economy.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 09:44:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
Like you did already, presumably...

LOL

You know a rhetorical question when you see one, then...

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 10:04:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Musings on the savings-glut theory

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 27th, 2009 at 09:40:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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