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Looking at that, it would seem to say that the recession will certainly be worse, at least within the US, than the 1980 oil crisis crunch ... all of the prior downturns had an inflection somewhere in the range of -1.0% to -1.5%, while this one was just getting started in that range and there is no inflection in sight.

If we get an inflection now, we might hope to turn the corner at -5%, but -3% seems wildly optimistic.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Feb 9th, 2009 at 06:14:34 PM EST
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