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plot Indicted vs. Casualties on a log-log plot. Can you actually see the diference?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2009 at 06:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gotta run. Will be busy until tomorrow morning...
by vladimir on Tue Mar 17th, 2009 at 06:30:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, here's the chart.

The triangles are the cases where the Serbs are the civilians and the circles the cases where the Serbs are the indictees. The two points nearest the upper right are the war in Bosnia.

And here's the fit to all six points together (that's the null hypothesis):
Coefficients:
    (Intercept)  log(casualties)  
    -4.0792       0.7741  

Response: log(indicted)
        Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value  Pr(>F)  
log(casualties)  1 3.3419  3.3419  13.880 0.02038 *
Residuals     4 0.9631  0.2408         
 


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2009 at 04:02:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So only two of the data points fall any distance away from the line, and are the data sets sufficiently large for that to mean anything significant?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2009 at 04:11:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The one clear outlier corresponds to Albanian indictees and Serb civilians.

With only 6 points it is really difficult to argue anything. For instance, what is the chance that all three "Serb indictee" points are above the line? 1 in 8. This is not sufficient to show bias at 90% confidence (you would need the probability to be less than 1 in 10) let alone 95% confidence (1 in 20).

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2009 at 04:17:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However, that might be the result of a difference in data sources:
Most of the civilian casualty figures were obtained from Wikipedia - which itself uses the ICTY, the Red Cross and for the Serbian civilian casualty figures in Kosovo, an EU funded project run out of Belgrade.
From wikipedia
According to a Serbian government report, from January 1, 1998 to June 10, 1999 the KLA killed 988[5] people and kidnapped 287[5]; in the period from June 10, 1999, to November 11, 2001, when NATO had been in control in Kosovo, 847[5] people were reported to have been killed and 1,154[5] kidnapped. This comprised both civilians and security forces personnel: of those killed in the first period, 335[5] were civilians, 351 were soldiers, 230 were police and 72 were unidentified; by nationality, 87 of killed civilians were Serbs, 230 Albanians, and 18 of other nationalities.[5] The Humanitarian Law Center in Belgrade, an organization funded by the European Commission, have announced that it had identified 8,000 Serbians out of a total of 12,000 casualties they had identified in the Kosovo War. [53]


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2009 at 04:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
co-incedentally Looking at the Wikipedia article on the Iraq war, it is noticeable that all the War crimes examples in there are not American. So the people prosecuted for Abu-Ghraib are not in the list of indictees even though their activities should be considered so under the Geneva conventions.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2009 at 04:50:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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