A Statistical Analysis of the ICTY's bias. | 220 comments (213 topical, 7 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The biggest problem here (none / 1)

No, because - as we went over at considerable length in the thread above - a t-test with Gaussian uncertainties requires that the uncertainties are uniform, which they manifestly are not.

If you must insist on treating these three points as independent - which I can see little justification for doing, but maybe that's just me - you do a (casualties, indictments, convictions) plot and run a linear fit against all three points in a given series at the same time. This way you get some more meaningful (implicit) assumptions about the way the uncertainties look.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2009 at 07:54:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The biggest problem here (none / 1)

The sensible thing to do is a fit in a log-log plot - the "intercept" is the quantity of interest here, and the "slope" is being taken as 1 but could be fitted too.

Or, rather, three fits.

One for all six rows in Vladimir's table - that's the "null hypothesis".

One for the 3 Serb rows and the 3 non-serb rows. That's more or less equivalent to was was done in the diary.

Or you could do a test on whether the 3 Serb and 3 non-Serb points fall above or below the "null hypothesis" regression line. The trouble is, with only 6 points you probably can't say anything with 95% confidence.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2009 at 08:06:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The biggest problem here (4.00 / 2)

AFAICT, that's substantially the same thing I'm doing below.

I would be opposed to fitting the slope as well as the intercept in your model, because we already only have three points for every fit parameter - and you fit a number of parameters comparable to your number of data points at the peril of talking nonsense...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2009 at 09:05:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The biggest problem here (none / 0)

This is what happens when you set the slope to 1 and only fit the intercept:

This actually makes it look worse for Vladimir's hypothesis.
The fit is this:

Coefficients:
(Intercept)  
     -6.095  

Response: log(indicted) - log(casualties)
	  Df  Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Residuals  5 1.24772 0.24954

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 18th, 2009 at 03:01:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A Statistical Analysis of the ICTY's bias. | 220 comments (213 topical, 7 editorial, 0 hidden)

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