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I performed two fits: the first
Coefficients:     (Intercept)  log(casualties)       -4.0792       0.7741   Response: log(indicted)
(which I prefer) gives you roughly

(indicted)^4 ~ (casualties)^3 / (9 million)

The other

Coefficients: (Intercept) -6.095
Had a slope of 1 "by fiat", so you get

(indicted) ~ (casualties) / 400

Taking the number of casualties to be 1 million you get

180 indictees by the first model

2500 indictees by the second model.

I'd go for the first model.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 18th, 2009 at 11:30:25 AM EST
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